Week 11 Recap: Aye! First week I don't post pics here and it's our biggest week of the year! Luckily for us, and all of my private subs that received my gold play, we had a nice win! (56u for us!)
Since I did not post any of my picks in this sub, I will not count them towards this subs win/loss totals. As always, only bets posted prior to game time on this sub count towards my totals so you (the readers) can have as accurate of an ROI (of this subs posts) as possible. That ROI is considerably lower than my private subs, but has been winning since the inception of this sub a few seasons ago. Lets keep the train rolling and finish the year strong! 💪🤑
Singles (0u)
Parlays (0u)
Teasers (0u)
BBDLS (0u)
Hopefully everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving. Now let's get back to work!
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Sunday Games
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Las Vegas at Atlanta: This week we open up with a game that features last weeks primetime losers. The Raiders lost to the Chiefs last week, but to be honest it was one of the best games I have ever seen Carr play. His focus looked dialed in. However, as is the Raiders current weakness, their defense could not hold off Patty Cakes and the Chiefs on a last minute drive.
Atlanta is also coming off a loss. They were taken down by Taysum Hill and the Saints. Ryan was sacked like a bajillion times and Hill looked...OK.
Both teams have a potent offense and weak-ish defenses. Both teams defenses rank in the top 15 in rush stopping, but in the bottom 3 in pass stopping. This would make you think that there is going to be a ton of passing, a ton of yards, and a ton of points. However, there seems to be heavy sharp action on the Under and the total has even dropped almost a full Field Goal since open.
I am a little nervous as my algo has this game closer to a pick-em than a Raiders road favorite by a FG. However, the Raiders have scored at least 30 in 3 straight, they are protecting Carr well (1 sack in total in last 3) and they are 4-1 ATS on the road this year. My algo does see more value on the Falcons catching points if we are looking at spreads (now that it has crossed to 3) However I can't trust the Falcons (all three of their wins came against losing record teams...Vikings, Panthers, Broncos), and the Raiders were my dark horse this year so I will RAREly take against them.
Give me the Silver and Black to win.
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Arizona at New England: This game is quite the conundrum. You would think if NE had playoff aspirations and an opportunity to beat this AZ Cards team that they would have taken care of business last week vs the struggling Texans. However as we saw, they could not.
Arizona is coming off some rest after having played last Thursday in a road loss to the Seahawks.
Who really knows what to expect in this game. The only thing that has me reluctant to hop all over Arizona is NE is home (cold outside weather compared to the AZ dome) and Sony Michel should be back for NE. And it looks like my algo and Vegas algo came up with a similar line as my algo likes AZ 25, NE 23 for a AZ -2 and total (almost the same as what it launched at)
IF this was a normal QB All of that info would have me riding the home team catching the two. However, Belichick notoriously has trouble with mobile QBs(as they are generally harder to scheme against because they have more nodes in their decision tree every play)
So, it seems as if this game is pretty evenly matched and that's most likely why Vegas opened it as a pick-em. Just let the market decide.
Since the winner of the game is close to a coin flip, we will look at other opportunities for wagers here.
Both teams have rushing QBs that are on pace to Challenge the overall best season rush TD leader (Cam Newton at 14) Currently Murray has 10 and Newton has 9. I would be looking for both players to take the opportunity to add to their totals if they are within 10 yards of the red zone.
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NY Giants at Cincinnati: So Sad to see Burrow go down. Seriously. Him and Herbert look Fantastic and both (given some decent line play and eventually a defense) should make some runs in the years to come. Good news for the Giants (and anyone betting them) is Burrow was literally Cincinnati's way of winning. Without him, I fear(for Cincy) that they won't have a chance to win another game this year.
The Giants are fresh off a bye and before that an upset win over the Eagles. To be honest, with the way the Giants defense is playing, if Jones can continue to protect the ball on offense this Giants team has a good opportunity to pick up the NFC East. Even if they only win this game and Week17 vs the Cowboys that would put them at 5-10 (but 4-2 in the division) and most likely give them tiebreakers over the Washington and Cowboys if they shared a similar 5-10 record.
With a new QB starting for Cincy I think it is also important to note New York's defense has also held opponents without a touchdown in the first half for three straight games. Also, Mixon is done...Gio B is questionable. This could be a mirror of last weeks score in the Detriot-Carolina game...
Great teaser spot (NYG to win)
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Cleveland at Jacksonville: This is one of the scariest favorites I will be riding today. It should be a gimmie game for Cleveland as they build momentum on an easy schedule to finish out the regular season and have a playoff birth. However, this week in particular, their defense is riddle with injury and Covid. Myles Garrett will miss his second consecutive game with coronavirus issues as will linebacker Sione TakiTaki. Cornerback Denzel Ward will also miss a few games with a knee injury. Kevin Stefanski said he expects the Browns to also be without fullback Andy Janovich, and defensive end Joe Jackson, who are on the list. Offensive lineman Chris Hubbard is also on the list, but Stefanski said he "has a chance" to return.
On the other side of the ball we have ANOTHER QB change. This time we will see Mike Glennon. I have NO idea why Jacksonville would do this. Lutton was playing fantastic. I am hoping it is because they would like to keep or improve their position in the draft order and they don't want to make the same mistake they made last year when Mustache Mania got them some press and a win or two, but hurt their draft order.
I would say the most reliable wager to look at in this game would be Chubb and Hunts props. They are the workhorses for this team and I expect Stefanski to utilize them as much as possible as to limit how much time his banged up defense has to spend on the field against a QB they have little to no film on.
Great teaser spot (Cleveland to win)
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Carolina at Minnesota: Carolina off delivering a crushing upset to the Lions last week. Minnesota stepping off the Red Rocket ride as they were upset by the Cowboys last week. It is not 100% yet, but it looks like MIN will be without Thielen.
My algo has this one closer to a Pick-em/ Min -1 so it seems rather hard to lay three and the hook vs. a rested Teddy B, returning to face his old team. However, taking Carolina (even though I get the FG and hook) seems like a scary side as MIN has Jacksonville next week and with a win here could easily be 6-6 and it would make for a delicious hyped up match vs the Bears.
Still, if youre going to choose a spread side, my algo is leaning Carolina.
However, my algo is also saying, forget the spread. There is much better value to be found in props. Both of these teams have an offence that can move the ball. Both of these teams have a defense that is suspect. Min has a poor pass defense, while Carolina has a poor rush defense. I would look for the usual for Minnesota (Lean HEAVY on Dalvin Cook with some 2nd half play action passes to Jefferson) But I would also look at Teddy B to come back and have a day throwing against this MIN defense. Possible Same game parlay game.
Great teaser spot (Total Over) Games in Minn this year are averaging 62.8ppg and the o/u is 5-0
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Tennessee at Indianapolis: THE REMATCH FOR THE AFC TITLE One of the more exciting match-ups. A repeat of a few weeks ago where the Colts got the best of the Titans. There are a few concerns before picking either side here. First and foremost is the Titans are getting 2/3s of the tickets and money, but the line has only dropped one point and has NOT crossed through 3. Logic would dictate if 70% of the money is on the team getting the FG here that books would lower it to 2.5 and encourage action on the home team, thus balancing the book. The fact that it hasn't yet, is worrisome for looking at TEN.
However on the other side, nine Colts did not practice this week, including offensive linemen Quenton Nelson (back/ankle) and center Ryan Kelly (neck). Defensive backs Rock Ya-Sin (illness), S Khari Willis (ribs/shoulder) S Justin Blackmon (illness) also sat out. DT Buckner, DE Autry and LB Okereke are ALL RULED OUT. Main components of the defense that is holding strong as one of the best this year. This might give Mr. Henry the opportunity to EAT even more than he did in the first match up (like 110 yards in that one) This has me hesitant to look at the Colts. But VERY EXCITED to look at Henry's props.
Great teaser spot (Tenn spread and/or Game total Over) Getting them up over the key numbers in a divisional battle where the Colts defense should be tested missing key players.
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LA Chargers at Buffalo: The Chargers have given up 27 or more points in their last six straight games, but are coming off a win vs. the Jets. Herbert, as he has all season, looked fantastic. And the Charger defense, as it has all season, looked like trash. Buffalo hasn't played in two weeks. The last time they did saw them lose on a last second hail-mary pass to D Hop.
So, just like a few of the games today, both teams have decent offenses that can move the ball and sub par defenses that have trouble stopping anyone. Buffalo does have a slight defensive advantage here as they do have a better pass rush than the Chargers.
Buffalo will however be missing a few players for this one. John Brown is still out and offensive lineman Cody Ford was recently injured and will miss the rest of the season.
The Chargers could see a BIG BOOST if Austin Eckler starts in this one. Herbert has already shown he boosts the abilities of the players he is throwing too, if Eckler comes back in, the Chargers could get few wins to end the year.
My algo actually has this game as -1 and a 51 as the total so naturally my algo leans Chargers.
I do fear the fact that the Bills are coming off a hard loss and then a bye, I would be WAY more likely to back the Chargers straight up here if the Bills had Won the game before the bye. Either way, this game looks like a teaser opportunity just like the game before it.
Great teaser spot (LAC spread and/or Game total Over) Like it less if Eckler is not back yet
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Miami at NY Jets: Well, well, well. Another Miami game, AND another Jets game. AT THE SAME TIME. Miami looked horrible last week in a loss to the Broncos (which if you read last week, we flagged as a do not bet Miami spot, trap from Vegas) The Jets also lost, but looked much better than they have all season.
This weeks Jets will be a little different, it looks like we are going to see the return of Sam Darnold. Which is interesting to me because halfway though the season I looked at the Jets schedule and thought their most likely games for a win in the back half of the season were weeks 11, 12, and 17. If they were tanking for a QB, wouldn't they still ride with Flacco, not caring about his overall record? I mean, they can still tank with Darnold, but why would they lower his trade value by letting him lose out the season before they trade him and draft a new QB? I feel like it's more likely they are trying to start him to get a win and increase his trade value right before the end of the year. Also, Miami has a decent defense, but their weakest link is their run defense and the Jets just so happen to have an ex-Miami player in FRANK GORE, THE AGELESS WONDER. Is it possible that the Jets get an early lead and lean on Gore to carry them to their first and only win of the season?! Hey, the Jets are winless, BUT they have won the first half in 7 of 10 of their last day games at home. Also, over 80% of the tickets and 75% of the $ is on the Dolphins, yet the line has held steady at 7 and even dropped to 6.5 in some places!! Maybe a little sprinkle sprinkle action? 🤑
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New Orleans at Denver: Another scary -6.5 spread. Both of these teams have formidable defenses. Denver's is average to below average, but they seem to do better at home in the altitude. (more than likely its because opposing offenses aren't used to it) This game has one of the lower totals on the day and there is increased RLM on the under. Taysom Hill won his first game, but it wasn't pretty. Now teams can build film on him and it's possible learn to contain him better. Denver has one of the lower red zone scoring allowed and Chubb and Reid are waking up this defense line as the season progresses. This reeealllly seems like the best opportunity for the lowest scoring game of the day and I will look to avoid ALL props in this one EXCEPT team totals and Field Goals.
In such a low scoring game script, I can't help but look at the spread with the home team catching almost a TD, it might also be an opportunity for another sprinkle on the 🐶
Great teaser spot (Game Total Under) Outside of a game with multiple defensive scores, I cant see either team hitting 25 points, teasing the total up to 50 and taking the under seems like a no brainer.
Update: Denver has no QBs. Covid. Dunno if the game will be played now...
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San Francisco at LA Rams: No Jimmy G, No George Kittle. It is looking like Samuel and Moestart will be back for San Fran. Rams basically injury free.
San Fran is coming off a bye week and returning some players for a divisional game vs. a team that hasn't beaten them since 2018. You would think it's a no brainer ride with the dog catching points. However, the Rams are looking nice. As predicted as a gold play to my private subs, they took down the Bucs last week and now look to take control of the lead in the NFC West. They are also 4-0 at home since moving to their new stadium and have already toppled the Dallas offence with Dak, the Giants and the Bears defenses, and Seattle and chef Russ.
My algo does lean LA to get the win here and keep their home stadium record undefeated, however with RLM on the Under and most of the bets on LA with the line not moving at all, it is toooo dangerous to lay a full TD in a divisional game.
Great teaser spot (Rams to win) Rams should keep the train rolling and exact revenge for their 2019 season sweep by and this years loss to the 49ers
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Kansas City at Tampa Bay: Why the fuck is this not the primetime night game? You're telling me if you are the schedule coordinator you think the public would rather watch the Chi/GB game? Give me a break. Anyway, it is what it is.
KC coming off a beautiful to watch win vs. the Raiders and Tampa Bay coming off a rough loss vs the Rams. Both on primetime last week. As expected 90% of the money is on KC right now... But the line has barely moved.
My algo has this as a 28-27 KC -1 prediction. So you know that means we HAVE to ride with the home team catching a FG and the hook. Besides, Brady has had some struggles this year, but only vs teams that have had a much better pass rush. KC pass rush just let the Raiders put up huge games, the panthers put up a ton...
Give me the Bucs in a bounce back game. With the Chiefs needing another 4th quarter comeback from Mahomey to stay in the race for the top seed in the AFC.
Great teaser spot (Tampa Bay spread) Getting this Brady lead team 10 points safety net in a game they win outright at least 25% of the time? EZ$
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Chicago at Green Bay: Above, I asked why this wasn't the 4pm game and KC/TB the night game in this spot? It's because Vegas knows everyone and their mother will have GB ml tied into their Sunday parlays...and the Bears are going to win. 😱🙈
Game opened at 7/7.5 and when Mitch "the Bitch" was named starter it has moved up to 9/9.5. 🤨🤔
However, I think we will actually see Mitch "make you My Bitch"😎 in this game. Bears defense is legit. Probably only 4 or 5 I would place ahead of them. GB has been very unreliable over the last few weeks (loss to minn, ez win vs 49ers, barely win vs Jacksonville ...) I could Easily see the Bears holding Rodgers to 24 or less in this game. That means to cover the spread Mitch only has to score 15? With his defense giving him at least 1 or 2 great field positions... 🤑
My algo has this as GB -4.5 so I have NO Idea why the game opened over a TD AND has moved higher. The only logical guess I can make at that is the public money is all over Green Bay and Vegas loves taking the Bears to cover in this game.
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Ravens at Steelers: Will not be written about. Too many variables, just avoid this game.
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Seattle at Philadelphia: I will have Seattle Moneyline in any parlays/BBDLS/Teasers. Not only because my algo favors them to win, but because I LOVE having my parlays tied up with the Monday night favorite. When the wagers are still live going into the game, it allows me to make spread hedges with the dog. Also, since I have the favorite, I am most likely getting the best price on the favorite at the beginning of the week, and also the best price on the underdog just before game time. How lucky would it be if we have parlays live going into Monday night with Seattle moneyline and the spread for Philly gets all the way up to +7! Dream hedge opportunity 😍
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Singles (68-86, -25.16u)

• Cam Newton 42.5 Rush Yards Over (1.06u to win 1u)
• Kyler Murray 51.5 Rush Yards Over (1.15u to win 1u)
• NYG -9.5 (1u to win 1.48u)
• Chubb 85.5 Rush Yards Over (1.4u to win 1u)
• Chubb to score and Browns to win (1.05u to win 1u)
• Justin Jefferson 73.5 Rec Yards Over (1.37u to win 1u)
• Teddy B 255.5 Pass Yards Over (0.55u to win 0.5u)
• Robby Anderson 5.5 Rec Over (0.8u to win 0.5u)
• Curits Samuel 4.5 Rec (0.5u to win 0.5u)
• Eckler Anytime TD (2u to win 2.5u)
• Josh Allen Anytime TD (0.5u to win 0.55u)
• Keenan Allen 77.5 Rec Yards Over (1.12u to win 1u)
• Diggs 84.5 Rec Yards Over (1.18u to win 1u)
• Cook and Henry 1TD or more each (1u to win 3u)
• NYJ +7 (1.1u to win 1u)
• NYJ ml (0.5u to win 1.3u)
• NYJ 1H ml (1u to win 1.85u)
• NO/DEN First to 25 points: Neither (2u to win 2.4u)
• NO/DEN First to 25 points: Neither (0.5u to win 2.15u)
• TB +3.5 (1.1u to win 1u)
• TB ml (1u to win 1.6u)
• Brady and Mahomes 2+ TDs each (2.5u to win 2.5u)
• Bears +9.5 (2.2u to win 2u)
• Mitch T Anytime TD (0.5u to win 3.5u)
• Mitch T First TD scorer (0.5u to win 20u)
• Mitch T Rush Yards Over
• Allen Robinson 65.5 Rec Yards Over \ These two aren't in yet, looking for lines. If I find it and bet it I will post in comments**

Parlays (6-23, +37.76u)

• NYG ml, CLE ml, Bears (FB to win 7.07u)
• NYG ml, CLE ml, LV ml, LAR ml, SEA ml (25u 0u to win 98.8u) This is part of a promo. If a loss, the bet is returned in cash.
• I have a few more in, all FreeBees

Teasers (2-2, +27.38u)

• LAC O44.5, CAR O44.5, CLE 0, LAR 0 (4u to win 11.59u)

BBDLS (0-50, -41.89u)

• I have a few in, but all but 3 (2.2u) are with bonus dollars or free bets. Feels like a good week 😉

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Thank you for Reading. Good luck to everyone!

Week 10 TNF Recap: Whelp! 🙃 The algo was spot on with loving the Colts. However, my adjustments took me off the IND -9.5 Alt line I was going to play and put me on the HT/FT. Unfortunately it took Indy an extra quarter to get their defense rolling and they had a few shitty calls against them in the 1H. However, I did like the Colts to crush so I took a live play when they were down in the first quarter that was able to mitigate our losses. Big week 10 coming up, lets check out the games!
Singles (1-3, -5.05u)
Parlays (u)
Teasers (u)
BBDLS (u)
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Sunday Games
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Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: I have skipped over this game all week. And now, Saturday night, I sit down to write and I still am unsure. My algo has PIT at -7.5. But, Big Ben and a few other have had to miss physical practices all week due to Corona protocols. Cincy is off a HUGE win over TEN (our algo was on that) however they just went into the bye. I would have rather taken them coming out of the bye off a loss. IDK, I think for now we say ride the dog or pass. There are many better spots today.
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Washington at Detroit: Garbage game of the week! Even though both of these teams have playoff chances... Washington is playing musical chairs with their QB over the last few weeks. This week it looks to be Alex Smith again. He looked relatively good vs the Giants last week. If it weren't for some poor WAS special teams play (that gave up 10 points to NY) That would have been a real game.
Detroit is coming off back to back losses giving up 41 and 34, and who knows what is going on there... Are they going to keep the Coach? Galloday? Stafford?! Also, Detroit may be without two starters on the offensive line this week... Detroit has been atrocious against the run this year. I would look at Washington utilizing their pass catching running backs in Gibson and JDM to control this game and take pressure off Smith having to do too much.
My algo has this game as a Pick-em so we are going to ride with the visitors. Another game worthy of a little sprinkle action 😎
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Houston at Cleveland: Here we have an AFC match up that CLE should be picking up if they want to be a playoff team. It is understandable for them to lose to the other playoff teams, but anyone with a losing record is a Must.
They will be facing a Texans team that last week came out of the bye and got their second win of the season... YAY! However, it was against the Jags...Starting a rookie QB...and they almost let the game go to OT after having an 11 point lead in the 4th....
Cleveland themselves is coming out of their bye and it appears to be the best time for them to have had it. They did lose the game going into the bye vs. the Raiders, however 100 mph winds and dropped passes seemed to be the game there. Now, coming out of the bye with 2 weeks of rest, they are returning two key starters on offense. #1 is the obvious Nick Chubb... and #2 is the Guard Wyatt Teller who was injured during the game vs. the Colts. Both look on track to return healthy and take on a Texans defense that is dead-last in the NFL against the run this season, allowing a whopping 159.5 rushing yards per game.
Here is the weather report for Cleveland on Sunday, "Mostly cloudy and windy with rain that should be ending in the afternoon. High 54F. Winds SW at 25 to 35 mph. Chance of rain 80%. Winds could occasionally gust over 50 mph. "
With the return of Chubb and Teller, the Texans horrible run defense, AND the weather concerns. I would expect Cleveland to get back to their roots and look to run the ball 60-65% of the time and mix in some play action shots.
My algo has this as 30-24 CLE however with the weather concerns and predicted game script I would lean on a much lower scoring game.
Some extra info to consider: Texans are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games and they are 0-7 SU in their last 7 games as underdogs.
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Jacksonville at Green Bay: Bottom of the barrel Jaguars travel to Green Bay to take on the rested Packers who are off a win 10 days ago vs. the 49ers. This should be a GB game all day. In fact, this is most likely going to be my pick in the $100M Golden Ticket on DK. This does point to a shootout with something like a GB 34-17 repeat performance. However, Just like the Browns game the weather report is dangerous for shootouts. "Cloudy and windy. There will be periods of light rain in the morning. High 41F. Winds W at 25 to 35 mph. Chance of rain 70%. Winds could occasionally gust over 40 mph." Rain and snow are manageable, but heavy winds make it a running game script more often than not.
My algo has GB 31-20 so I don't think I feel comfortable laying the 13.5. However, JAX is JAX, so I definitely don't feel comfortable laying with them on the road with a rookie QB in bad weather...
This game is most likely a pass for me except for some Aaron Jones props.
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Philadelphia at NY Giants: Battle for the NFC EAST. Wow that sucks, considering these two teams have a combined record 5-11-1. Philly is coming out of a bye and returning a ton of offensive talent. "Alshon Jeffery will make his season debut after not receiving an injury designation, while Miles Sanders will start at running back for the first time since Week 6 (knee). Lane Johnson will start at right tackle after not receiving an injury designation. Jason Peters will start at left tackle. "
The Giants however are starting to come together defensively. Their offense is still meh, but their defense has kept them in their last 5 games (with two wins over WAS and 3 losses by a FG or less each time.
For me this come down to the same thing as the next game. Give me a home team, catching points, in a divisional game that is the second meeting.
Ehhh, during my morning poop I decided that the majority of bettors should be thinking the same thing here. Maybe I shouldn't overthink, but I'm back on the Eagles side. 💩
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Tampa Bay at Carolina: Big game for Tampa Bay here. Losing last week to the Saints was a huge stumble for them, basically giving up control of winning their division. Carolina put up another hard fight and almost gave the Chiefs an upset, losing by only 2! In fact, since that last game vs. Tampa Bay the Panthers are 5-0 ATS when in the underdog role.
Normally, I would be all over Carolina. My algo actually has this as TB -4... Throw that in with TB having back to back poor showings prior and it seems like a perfect spot to take the home dog and the points.
However, when we look closer at when Brady has struggled this year, it's when the opposing team is generating pressure and creating sacks. Fortunately for Tampa Bay, Carolina does neither of those. The Panther have only 10 sacks and 23 QB hits so far this season. They are more of a drop back 7 or 8 and give up short stuff, but don't give up the long balls. Which is perfect for Brady to get back into his comfort zone.
Still even with Brady having more time in the pocket and TB probably righting the ship in the win column, I don't think there is value in the -6. Carolina is one of those pesky teams that is playing close games and this IS the second meeting for these two.
Extra notes: Brady 19-6 ATS after a loss. 7-1 ATS after a 20 points loss....On the other side, Bridgewater is 21-4 ATS in his career as an underdog including 5 straight covers as a dog this season...
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Denver at Las Vegas: Another divisional matchup. This one features the up and down Broncos coming off a loss who are 2-2 since the return of Drew Lock taking on the Raiders who are having an up season starting the first half 5-3. Even though the Raiders are playing at home for the first time in weeks and are allowing fans to this game, my algo is still showing this as only LV -1. It heavily favors the over and likes a lean on the Raiders to win, but the spread is far too high for me to consider Las Vegas.
Could be a spot to look at the Broncos value with some points but Lock has been bad in the first 3 quarters of most of his games, only really getting hot in the 4th when teams are up and drop into prevent D. I could see him starting faster today since he is taking on a Raiders D, however I thought the same thing vs. ATL recently and he stunk it up.
Jerry Judy is my prop look in this one.
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Buffalo at Arizona: Two similar high ceiling offenses meet in this one. At the start of the week I was all Buffalo. In fact, I took them on Thursday in my BBDLS with the Colts and others. However, after running the algo and checking the news my pick has shifted FIRMLY to the Cardinals. First of all, my algo spits this out a 25-28 game in AZ favor. However, with todays news of the Bills TE, two corners, and a safety on the covid list and not traveling for game, That pushes a lean to a strong lean.
Then, we look at each teams strengths and weaknesses. Both teams have potent offenses with mobile QBs and deep threat WRs, so basically a wash there. Defensively The Bills rush defense has been horrrrrible giving up 146 ypg over their last 5 games. On the other team, the AZ rush defense is not all the best, ranking overall 22nd in the league. So slight edge to AZ there. However, when we look at Buffalo losing their deep and edge players due to Covid this week I think we can safely say the edge is on the AZ side.
This is another perfect game to try a Same Game Parlay however I would be weary of the total. 56.5 is rather high. I like the over on 51 and below, but over 51 it loses its value.
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LA Chargers at Miami: This is a game I am excited to watch. My algo really likes Herbert and Burrow so it will be exciting to watch at least one of them in this game. There isn't much to this one. My algo has it as a Pick-em. Miami has placed two starters in the front seven on the reserve/COVID-19 list. Chargers Starting RB is now Bellange, coming home for a revenge game against a weak front 7... Behind him is the best rookie QB we have seen since Patty cakes...
MIA had a surprisingly big win last week but that high emotion leads me to believe they will start this game a little flat. If LA gets a lead, this game is over.
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Seattle at LA Rams: So this one actually hurts to write. I am a big SEA fan this year. I have a future on them to win the NFC and also the SB. However, I am also fond of this LA Rams team this year. I expected them to get over their SB slump (that the 49ers are in right now) and win at least 8/9 games this year.
My algo (as weird as it seems) is spitting out LAR -3.5 in a 27-23.5 style contest. I am still not sure I can place this bet on the Rams. Even tho the algo speaks, the Rams have only really beat the NFC East and the Bears this year. They haven't faced a QB like Russ yet, nor one that has weapons like DK and Lockett.
TBH this seems like the perfect game to middle on. Divisional battle. Possibly take SEA to +8.5 and balance it with some LAR ml or even LAR +3.5.
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San Francisco at New Orleans: Beep Boop Beep Boop! Alert alert. This game is so confusing! I feel like NO could win easy 34-17, or SF could upset win some 27-24 grind out with some trick plays and jets sweeps.
Obviously because of those many possible scenarios, the value is found in SF +10. Seems to be the perfect spot for it too. SF lost a blowout on primetime last Thursday and the Saints won a blowout in primetime last Sunday. Public money should be alll over the Saints. If taking a big dog is too much of a sweat for you there are some decent props to look at in this game. SF is getting back a TON of offensive weapons and I expect them to look for a lot of short completions that allow the receivers a safer way to get yards.
As crazy as this sounds, my algo actually has SF as -1.5 for this matchup... Im guessing it is assuming Jimmy G and Kittle are in, along with Sanders and Thomas being out but still and 11 point difference is the biggest I have seen all year.
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Baltimore at New England: Last game on the slate and it has the scariest feeling. I LOVE Baltimore this year. Outside of the Chiefs, they are my other AFC contender to go against the Seahawks in the Superbowl. The looked good last week bouncing back from their two losses to smack around the Colts team.
On the flip side, NE needed a 4th quarter comeback to beat... THE JETS.... who by the way, put up 30 on them...
Should be a slam dunk Baltimore go go go...
But what's scary to me is 94/93 % of the tickets AND the cash are on the Ravens. And allll week the line has barely moved. Even the Saints vs. the 49ers moved from 7.5-10 throughout the week.
So while I will need a Baltimore win to wrap up all my parlays and teasers on the day, some thing is very scary about those percentages. Vegas RARELY pays out 90 percent of bettors....
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Singles (60-81, -35.26u)

• WAS +4.5 (2.2u to win 2u)
• WAS ml (0.5u to win 0.88u)
• Chubb Anytime TD (2.4u to win 2u)
• Chubb 71.5 Rush Yards Over (2.2u to win 2u)
• Chubb 15.5 Attempts Over (1.15u to win 1u)
• Mercedes Lewis Anytime TD (1u to win 6u)
• Jerry Judy 58.5 Rec Yards (2.5u to win 2u)
• AZ -2.5 (2.4u to win 2u)
• Kyler Murray Over 51.5 Rush Yards (3.1u to win 2u)
• AZ Team Total 29.5 Over (1.1u to win 1u)
• Hopkins to score TD and AZ to win (2u to win 6u)
• Ballange Anytime TD (3u to win 12u) This was going to be a 1u play but every website had this prop at somehwere around -112 to -200. But for some reason, Draftkings has it at +400
• Ballange 2 TDs (1u to win 40u) I mean the price was sooooo good, how could we not in a revenge game where he is the primary back. 🤑

Parlays (6-23, +37.76u)

• GB ml, PHL ml, CLE ml, AZ +3.5, LAC +7.5 (FB to win (170.73u) How about William Hill! Offering a 50u FreeBet just for creating an account and depositing. Lets get it! 🤩

Teasers (2-2, +27.38u)

• PHL +3, WAS +10, CLE +3, LAC +8.5, SEA +9.5 (FB to win 22.5u)

BBDLS (0-44, -35.69u)

• Indy ml, CLE ml, LV ml, MIA ml, TB ml, NO ml, BAL ml, SEA +2, BUF ml, GB HT/FT ml (2u to win 207.9u) This was put in at the beginning of the week. I would cash it out if I could, but it's not available for cashout so we just have to ride it.
• I have another 5 BBDLS for 4.2 U in. Lets go Bellange, score two TDs! 😎

Week 5 Recap: Look at us, putting in another solid card, right on que. As I have said in previous years, weeks 1-4 are usually a little high variance, but weeks 5-14 are where the data collection yields it's fruits. Thursday was fantastic, we picked the underdog upset and went 4-0 on the night. Sunday was also a positive day. We were VERY close to some big boy daddy long shots. I feel confident that they will show a return eventually, they are just a long term play. Our teaser was 1 off, that tends to happen with teasers over 3/4 picks so nbd. Overall a good building week. Let's keep this train rolling!
Singles (9-8, +5.6u)
Parlays (2-1, +19.6u)
Teasers (0-1, -5u)
BBDLS (0-8, -6.8u)
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SUNDAY GAMES
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Chicago at Carolina: Bears coming off a win over the Bucs and some extra days rest. Carolina also coming off a win (3 game win streak) where they were underdogs. At the beginning of the week when the lines were released I jumped on the Bears +3 And the Ml +120 for 2u and 1u respectively. However, the more research that was done, the more I like Carolina. Neither of these teams are proven winners yet as all of their wins have come against losing teams. Carolina is like TEN in that they aren't flashy, they just are well coached, execute properly and do their best to minimize mistakes while forcing the other team to WIN the game. As we have seen when they face a team that can win, that team does win. But if they face teams that have trouble getting the win...Carolina out executes them and wins comfortably. The main problem I see Carolina having when losing is they settle for too many field goals in the red zone. (27th in red zone efficiency, scoring touchdowns on just 10 of its 20 red zone trips) Unfortunately for them, this is the Bears defensive strength. They are currently No. 1 in the red zone and No. 2 on third down.
A side story I am looking at in this game is running back Mike Davis returning to CHI (the team that drafted him and then let him go). He has been running as an unstoppable force these last 3 games and I look for it to mostly continue. I do think against this bears front he is more likely to get his action through receptions and YAC than through handoffs.
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Detroit at Jacksonville: This one should be simple (I feel like I say that a lot for Detroit write ups) Detroit is coming off a bye and this is the perfect time to put together some wins. They have a VERY favorable schedule coming up but to have any shot at catching Green Bay or Chicago need to take care of the easy ones. This week and next week are those games.
Jacksonville is coming off another loss, this one to the previously winless Texans. Their main problem is defense. They have given up 30+ to every team in their losing streak and the only team they beat was, IMO a bad QB. (Late age Phillip Rivers in a season opener with no preseason) Bad news for them, as mentioned, the Lions are coming off a bye week and have now returned previously injured players. Look for Adrian Peterson to have a day and keep an eye out for the return of Kenny Galloday.
My algo likes this game for an over and so I put in a Same game parlay on Fanduel for half a unit. It is a BBDLS to win +150u. There are a few games to look at same game parlays on, and with the way both of these two teams have played defensively, this is definitely one of those games.
Side note, this was a pretty detailed video explaining why the Lions will defeat the Jags: https://youtu.be/7RVcmu3fHeM
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Atlanta at Minnesota: Failcons blew another one. They started out exactly as I predicted, leaning heavy on Gurley and blitzing Teddy B, getting a lead... but then they just stalled. Now... Quinn is gone.
Minnesota played a hell of a game week 5 and gave themselves every opportunity to win. They just didn't convert in a key spot and gave Russ the chance to win it...and that's what he did. Based on team vs team matchup, we would expect the Vikings to take this one. Cousins has had a rough first few matchups, but a shitty Falcons D could be his elixir back to at least an average form. Cook is out, but Mattison is a very capable backup that has replaced Cook well. The key to this one will be MIN D. It was able to slow Russ down last week, finally showing signs of cohesion, but once crunch time came, they fell apart. Can they keep climbing, back to a normal form? Or will Matt Ryan look to prove it was Quinn and his leadership that held him back and come out and win this one.
Personally I am a huge fan of betting on a team when they get an interim coach. We took Houston last week, and they rolled nicely. Here is what interim coach Raheem Morris had to say, "At the end of the day, we have to find a way to put our foot on people's throats and end games," Morris said. "That's what has got to happen."
Feels like he knows his defense is trash and he's going to be very loosey goosey with his play calling this week. This is another game my algo likes the over in and has potential for Same game parlays on player props.
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Houston at Tennessee: Houston broke the winless streak and the curse of Obrien has been lifted. They looked good, but let's keep in mind that was vs a sinking Jacksonville team. Tennessee, as predicted and given as a play to my premium subscribers, continued the winning ways and crushed the Bills in a Tuesday game! Now on short rest return home to take on the Texans in an important divisional match up.
This is tough because TEN is coming off a shorrrrrt week. After playing Tuesday night, that only leaves them 4 days of travel, rest, game planning, and the tons of Covid protocols to go through. I feel like as the better, complete team, they have the overall advantage given all things neutral. However with the increased energy for the Houston team after the coaching chances and first win and the short week for TEN defense to recover, my algo leans a HOU cover and possible win.
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Washington at NY Giants: Whelp, Washington went exactly like I wrote last week, haha. We got to see Alex Smith! Seriously though, Kyle Allen looked pretty legit in the first quarter. He was a Full participant in practice on Friday and looks to be good to go for this one. On the other side Daniel Jones is just not progressing. Last week the Giants put up over 30 points and Jones threw 0 TDs. HOW ARE THE GIANTS FAVORITES?!
I feel like Rivera's thought process is...if we can win the next 3 games, (2 against an 0-5 team and 1 vs. the worst defense in the league right now) we are 4-4 and 4-0 in the division. With another divisional game vs the depleted eagles still to be played this season. I expect Rivera to unleash some early deep balls and pressure the shit out of Jones.
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Cleveland at Pittsburgh: 17 years since a Browns win in Pittsburg. Cleveland did well for us last week and got the upset vs the Colts. They are looking like the Titans, establish a good run game, have the QB make manageable throws, take a few shots, play above average D.
The Steelers are 4-0 and their defense is averaging 3+ sacks(5 PER) and 1+ INT per game this year...but who have they played? winless Giants, and three one win teams in the Eagles, Texans, and Broncos...
The major weakness to the Steeler D is that they are allow teams to convert a whopping 50% on third down.
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Baltimore at Philadelphia: Ehhhh, another one of those game I don't want to touch. Outside of the win vs the 49ers, I don't know what is keeping this line between 7-9.5. I am not sure why it didn't open closer to 10 than 7. Usually when something like this happens it's a flag for me to stay away or take the dog. However Philly? I'd rather lay money on the Jets ml than the Phl ml right now
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Cincinnati at Indianapolis: Cincy lost what looked to be a blowout vs the ravens. But if you look closer, their defense played surprisingly well against one of the better offenses in the league. Burrow was again sacked like 47 times and the offense had trouble getting anything going. The Colts are coming off a loss to the Browns where its now becoming glaringly obvious that Old man Rivers is getting too old to be a starting QB for a team with this good of a defense and this good of an offensive line. I mean shit, you put Sam Darnold in this team and I bet he looks twice as good as Rivers. This will be an interesting game and I am excited to see Burrow get his second win ;)
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Green Bay at Tampa Bay: BATTLE OF THE BAYS 4-0 Packers traveling to Florida to take on the 3-2 Bucs. Both teams off rest with the Packers coming off a bye week and the Bucs playing the previous TNF. The Packers are getting Davante Adams and Mercedes Lewis back. The Bucs are getting back almost there whole offense in Godwin, Evans, and Fournette. Honestly, my algo has this game as TB -2.5. It targets the Bucs pass rush as being the difference maker in this one. When under pressure Rodgers goes from a passer rating of 141.1 and a completion % of 80 with 9.4 YPA all the way to a 68.8 passer rating with a completion % of 34.6 and 6YPA. So far this season the GB O line has protected Rodgers well. However, they have yet to face a formidable pass rush with their only challenges being MIN and NO, both shells of their former defenses.
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LA Rams at San Francisco 49ers: The Rams are turning into a very nice team this year. I have been high on them all season, and I will continue smoking that dooby for this game. Don't get me wrong, there is a reason this game is only 3.5 even though the Rams blew out their last opponent and the 49ers GOT blown out, but the Rams this year feel like the 49ers of last year. Stout defense, a committee of running backs, both of those elevating average QB play to above average. As you can see, without the dominant running game and stout defense, Jimmy G (or whoever plays QB for the previous SB finalist 49ers) struggles.
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NY Jets at Miami: No analysis for this one. I am skipping it except for some small plays on the Jets. I am not confident enough in MIA to take them as a large favorite. I am not comfortable enough in Joe Flaco to take him at this point in his career for any large amount. But, this is the NFL and any given Sunday so I feel there is always a little value on massive dogs that the public is against.
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Denver at New England: Both of these teams have been off the field so long, how can we know what to expect? Who is even QB for both of these teams? Is Cam back and if so, is he healthy? Personally I think it shouldn't matter too much for the overall winner of the game. You give me Billy B with two weeks to prepare and I'll take him coach for the Falcons over this Denver team. But the spread is a decent amount of points to cover with little knowledge on the status of the players. Outside of some ml parlays, I will be avoiding this game.
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***I put in a few bets at the beginning of the week to start getting the best of numbers I like. Sometimes my fade switches as I learn more info throughout the week. The bets with \** were all placed at the beginning of the week, so tail those with caution.*
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Singles (29-30, -2.56u)

• CHI +3 (2.4U to win 2u) \*\**
• Mike Davis 5.5 Rec Over (1u to win 1.22u)
• Mike Davis Anytime TD (1.6u to win 1u)
• Mike Davis 58 Rec Yards (1u to win 1.95u)
• CHI/CAR Total Field Goals Made 3.5 Over (4u to win 5u)
• DET Team Total 27.5 Over (2.3u to win 2u)
• HOU +4 (2.13u to win 2u)
• HOU ml (1u to win 1.75u)
• WAS +3 (2.4u to win 2u) **\*
• WAS ml (1.5u to win 1.88u) **\*
• WAS HT ml/FT ml (1u to win 2.2u)
• CLE +4 (2.2u to win 2u) **\*
• CLE ml (1u to win 1.6u) **\*
• Kareem Hunt anytime TD (2.75u to win 2u)
• B. Roethlisberger & C. Wentz 1 or more Passing TDs Each (1u to win 1u)
• CIN + 7.5 (1.1u to win 1u)
• TB ml (1u to win 1.15u) **\*
• NYJ ml (1u to win 3.2u) **\*
• NYJ +9.5 (2.2u to win 2u) **\*
• DAL ml (1u to win 1.2u) **\*
• I have many more plays that are going out to my subscribers. Most of them are the props I found +EV. The targeted games are DET/JAX, ATL/MIN, CLE/PIT, AND AZ/DAL.

Parlays (2-11, -14.09u)

• CLE HT ml/FT ml, BAL ml, IND ml (2u to win 11.22u) **\*
• WAS 1h +1.5, BAL ml, DET ml, IND ml (2.5u to win 9.9u)
• DET ml, WAS ml, TBml (0u to win 57.57u) SugarHouse had a deposit promo this weekend. This is the FreeBet from that promo.
• HOU +7.5, CIN +8.5, CLE/PIT 44.5 OVER, NYJ +10.5 (5u to win 42.16u) 50% Odds Boost on this one
• BAL ml, DET ml (3.2u to win 3u)

Teasers (1-4, +23.85u)

• WAS +7.5, CLE +9.5, HOU +10, DAL +7.5 (4.5u to win 10u)
• WAS +7.5, CLE +9.5, HOU +10, DAL +7.5, NE -1, TB +8, DET +3.5, NE -1 (3u to win 21u)

BBDLS (0-27, -22.57u)

• We have another 7 of these rocking for a total of 6.42u wagered.

Week 9 TNF Recap: Pretty standard game with the 49ers missing half their team. GB won easily and our lone wager is still alive for the Sunday games. Lets see what opportunities we have available to us this week! 🙂
Singles (u)
Parlays (u)
Teasers (Still live)
BBDLS (u)
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SUNDAY GAMES
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Seattle/Buffalo: Alrighty! First match up of the day and its my Super bowl predicted team. A West coast team traveling east for a 1pm game. Usually a look at the East coast team. However Seattle and Wilson are 18-6 in the last 24 1pm East coast starts, winning their last 10 in a row! The Seahawks have covered five of their last seven games and have won 10 of their last 12 games as a road favorite. In player news, "All-Pro Safety Jamal Adams, Seattle's biggest offseason acquisition, is expected to return Sunday after missing four games with a groin injury. Two-time Pro Bowl defensive end Carlos Dunlap is set to make his Seahawks debut after being acquired in a trade last week with Cincinnati and defensive tackle Damon "Snacks" Harrison, another former Pro Bowler, is close to being in game shape after being signed as a free agent.
On the other side, Buffalo is coming off a narrow divisional win vs New England and has only covered once in their last 5 games. "Bills center Mitch Morse was knocked out on the third play against the Patriots and remains in the concussion protocol. Receiver John Brown (knee), defensive end Jerry Hughes (foot) and cornerback Josh Norman (hamstring) have also missed practice time this week."
The Bills and Allen started the year hot with a 12-1 TD/INT ratio in the first 4 game. Only to throw a 4/4 ratio in the last 4 games.
There is great weather for a northeast game in November and with all the news and trends it would look like an easy spot to take SEA and the Over. The scary thing about committing to that is the MAJORITY of bets on this game are on SEA and the over...But, every time the line hits 3, it wont cross to 3.5 and most often doesnt stay at 3 for long. Also, the total opened at 55.5 but has RLM to as low as 54 in some books! The only other reason I can see for SEA possibly playing a flat game is that they just played 2 divisional games and after this have two more (one being the rematch of their only loss so far) With this game being non-conference AND SEA having it squeezed in between 4 divisional games, maybe I could see them spending more effort on the divisional games?
Either way, my algo has this as 27 24 SEA with the most favorable prop to target as Cole Beasley (SEA D is weak, but its WEAKEST point is vs slot receivers and WTF are these lines, 4.5 REC and 50 yards? Hes averaging 5 Rec and 60+ yards per game...)
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DenveAtlanta: Next up we have a rather pointless game (for playoff implications). ATL is off a win on TNF and some extra rest. Denver is coming of a huge 2nd half comeback with a last second score to win a divisional home game as a dog. The Broncos are also 3-1 in their last 4 games, with their only loss to KC. (2-1 of those games came on the road). Atlanta hasn't won a game at home yet this year. My algo has this as a 24-26 ATL. I believe this game has potential to be one by BOTH teams. So, with the clearly better defense and catching more than 4, I think it's a good spot for DEN. Possibly a sprinkle game too! 😉
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Chicago/Tennessee: This is the match-up of the pretenders. Two teams that the model is not sure if they are contenders or pretenders. CHI put in Foles when they were 3-0. Now they are 5-2. Their offense has got to find some continuity. Only averaging 20ppg it might be able to find some life vs a TEN defense that is quite suspect. They have made some changes recently and will be starting new pieces. Could be the perfect opportunity for Foles to get some stats on the sheet because TEN d-line has been very weak, rarely sacking opposing QBs this year. They will need every bit of Foles because the Bears run offense has been horrrrrible this year. Let's put it this way, TEN's Derrick Henry outrushes the Bears by himself on a per-game basis.
My algo has this as TEN -1 with a total of 50. Looks like I'll be leaning CHI on the bounce back.
Side note: I've said it before, ill mention it again. There's almost always an upset and it usually comes from the games that are 6/6.5 spread. Books seem to squeeze this in every week somehow to take care of people's teasers. This weeks candidates CHI, JAX, NYJ
Something interesting to note, majority of bets are on TEN yet the line hasn't moved from 6.5 to 7. . .
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Detroit at Minnesota: Ehhhh, a very weird one. It has been off the board most of the week because we are not sure if Stafford is going to play. He is under a Covid protocal for close contact. He will be tested daily up until Sunday morning. If he is negative he will most likely play, if he tests positive he will obviously be out.
Outside of the Stafford storyline we have some revenge game stuff. Everson Griffen and AP returning to MIN, and I think MIN has some DET players now.
My algo has this as a Pickem being very game script dependent. I likes whoever gets a lead as it favors their defense to go for more on the pass rush.
I would say that Stafford being in will be the most important news to follow. If he is out I may look for a small teaser on MIN and the Under as I expect them to lean on Cook again. However, if Stafford plays I think this is a great spot to take the Lions and even a sprinkle on the money line.
Again, if Stafford is in I would look to some Lions props as MIN D is still a poopshow. With Galloday out, Look for Hall and Hockenson to get the extra targets. Also, if Stafford plays the Lion's have been coming out FIRE in the first quarter.
Check in the comments Sunday before game time to see who I took based upon the Stafford news.
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Baltimore at Indianapolis: Back to back weeks Baltimore in a big AFC matchup. Last week was frustrating not only for us (BAL losing hurt) it was probably extremely frustrating for BAL. They outgained the Steelers nearly 2:1 in yards! They rushed on the Steelers Super AMAzeballs defense for over 250 yards! If not for FOUR very costly turnovers by Lamar, that would have been an ez BAL victory.
This is where it gets weird. When I compare the stats in my algo they are nearly identical and it spits out this game as a Pickem. However, something to note that I have not added in as weight on my algos calculations is strength of opponents. Which on wins, is not much for either team. However, on losses, they do have two common opponents (CLE and CIN). Both of which BAL SMASHED and one of which is INDys losses.(CLE)
Normally I would say this is a BAL all day game and if we see this match up in the playoffs I would most likely (barring some weird injury news) take BAL then. HOWEVER, this has been a weird week for BAL with like 7 defensive players on the COVID protocol list. To go with that, the whole BAL team has been restricted from practicing until SAT. Which means they got SAT practice in an have to travel to play tomorrow.
With all that said, this might be a game to contrary myself. However, with BAL being the more publicly bet team it might be more prudent to wait until closer to game time. Try to catch another +3 with IND or wait to take them at +2.5 in a teaser.
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Carolina at Kansas City: CMC is back Baby! Haha. This should be a very interesting one. KC has been on a tear recently winning back to back games by more than 25. Carolina is off a tough primetime divisional loss to ATL last week that basically told you they don't want the last playoff spot.
Surprisingly my algo has this as 30-24 KC.
I am going to have to say this game will be largely dependent on CMCs health, productivity, and if CAR can keep pace or get a lead early. If so, KC does have the fourth-worst run defense in football with teams averaging 142.8 yards per game against them. AND even if they pull a lead, maybe there is some back door potential? CAR has only 1 loss this year by more than 10 points...
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Houston at Jacksonville: Oh boy. . . Do you even wanna watch this game? Houston is coming off a bye and has had two weeks to prepare for a rematch against the team that gave them their only win this year. The difference in this game? JAX is starting a new 24 year old QB for his first start. And, they are giving him a defense that has given up at least 30 points in every game except one.
My algo has this as only HOU -4.5. However there is no adjustment in there for the QB change.
I expect JAX to help their fresh starting QB out as much as he can by giving the ball as much as they can to their RB. My algo marks this as a FANTASTIC spot to target Robinson in total yards rush+rec as not only will he have his normal workload against a horrible defense, but he will get the extra work that comes from the coaches trying to simplify the game for their QB.
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NYG at Washington: Ugh, another dumpster fire game. NY played on Monday night and barely lost to the TB Bucs. Washington is off a bye. I want little to no part of this game. My algo has WAS as -2.5 but it also had WAS as -1 in the first match up. The NYG defense is on the rise and Danny Dimes seems to come out vs. the Washington Team. If anything, I would say WAS needs it more. They have one of the better chances to win the NFC East if they can pick up this game. (They have an easier back half of the schedule than most of the other teams)
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LV at LAC: Sooo, LV is one of my favorite teams this year. I think they are building something real and I expect Gruden to take them deep in the playoffs in the next 3 years. Currently they are still in build mode, especially on defense, but Carr and the offense are starting to find some rhythms. Jacobs doesn't seem to be as good as his rookie year suggested but there's time to draft in that position. They are coming off a rough crap weather grind game vs. the Browns, where they came out the victor.
The Chargers also look like a great team for the future. I think once they get a change at head coach and redevelop their defense, they too could have something. They are coming off a last second comeback loss to the Broncos. Actually, they have been leading in most of their losses, only to give it up in the 4th. Herbert looks like a beast and his timing with Allen appears strong.
My algo has this as LAC -1 and I think this games about as coin flip as you can get. Both have above average offense and below average defense. I think I am going to lean LAC 1Q as they are home and have been coming out strong the last few games. However, if I catch this game live I will look to bet whoever's live spread gets 7+
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Pittsburgh at Dallas: Not really feeling this is a game that has much value. PIT could easily blowout dallas 34-6. Dallas is about to start there 23 quarterback. Their D gives up 33+ per game. And oh btw, PIT is 7-0 with wins over the Titans and Ravens.
Why I won't take PIT is mostly the same reasoning. Dallas is starting an unknown at QB. DAL is 2-6 and PIT has a divisional game next week vs an opponent currently on a bye. This is PITs 3rd road game in a row. How much has the travel been wearing on the mental state.
I am just going to avoid this game.
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Miami at Arizona: Well well well, looks like that MIA +3.5 play last week was good TUA TIME-ing! Seriously though, TUA did next to nothing in that game. Like almost 0. But that MIA defense.... WHOOO weeeeeeee
Both teams are coming into this game riding a 3 game winning streak. AZ is coming off a bye and has waayyyy the better offense. MIA comes into this game off a big upset vs the LA Rams and has a much better defense.
Again, I dont know if we can trust TUA yet. A home game vs a team traveling 3000 miles to play a 1pm start was tough enough. Now he has to travel across the country for his first road start? On a positive note, he will be playing indoors...
I think ill mostly avoid here.
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SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTABALL
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New Orleans at Tampa Bay: The matchup of the Day. NO comes into this game riding a 4 game winning streak. However it is important to note that 3 of those wins came against teams with a below .500 record and all 4 of the wins were by less then a TD.
TB comes into this game riding a 3 game win streak but their most recent win was on Monday night (short week) vs the Giants in which it was close all game and NY had a chance to send the game into OT. Not something you want to see. It could be that the team overlooked NY in preparation for this game. Knowing that winning their division is more important than a game vs the Giants.
We should see the debut of Antonio Brown in this one. Currently I have found him at +162 to score a TD and +1200 to score the first TD. Might throw a free bet on one of those just for a fun sweat.
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New England at NYJ: Not going to lie, this was going to be my upset of the year. Pats having almost 0 offensive weapons outside of Cams run game. Jets only real strength is stopping the run. Pats D is NOT what we are used to. The amount of missed tackles happing has to make Bellichek SICK. Darnold, at home, with the probably better defense, catching over a TD?!
However, Darnold now appears to be out. I still think NY has good EV to cover, especially with the extra FG, as both teams should struggle to put u any points. However, the upset just feels so much harder as Flacco is VERY low raked in my algo's QB index.
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Singles (52-65, -19.01u)

• Cole Beasley 50.5 Rec Yards Over (3.15u to win 3u)
• DEN +4.5 (2.2u to win 2u)
• DEN ml (2u to win 3.5u)
• Noah Fant 4.5 Rec Over (1.4u to win 1u)
• Jerry Judy 47.5 Rec Yards Over (2.8u to win 2u)
• CHI +6.5 (2u to win 2u)
• CHI TT 20 Over (2.1u to win 2u)
• Allen Robinson 72.5 Rec Yards Over (1.11u to win 1u)
• DET 1Q +0.5 (FB to win 2.12u)
• DET +3.5 (1.1u to win 1u)
• Will Fuller anytime TD (FB to win 3.3u)
• Brandin Cooks 4.5 Rec Over (1u to win 1u)
• James Robinson 22.5 Rec Yards Over (3.45u to win 3u)
• James Robinson 102.5 Rush and Rec Yards Over (1.2u to win 1u)
• James Robinson 3.5 Rec Over (1.5u to win 1u)
• Terry McLaurin 72.5 Rec Yards Over (2.3u to win 2u)
• LAC 1Q ml (2.4u to win 2.04u)
• Keenan Allen 6.5 Rec Over (2.5u to win 2u)
• Keenan Allen 75.5 Rec Yards Over (2.4u to win 2u)
• Kyler Murray 40.5 Rush Yards Over (2.8u to win 2u)
• Antonio Brown 1st TD scorer (2u to win 22u) Promo, if he scores not the first TD, but any other TD, the bet is returned.

Using up some free bets this week. They are long parlays and BBDLS so I am not going to type them all out. If something hits or is sweating into SNF, I will post.
Parlays (6-20, +43.76u)

• CHI +6, WAS, ml, HOU ml (2u to win 6.22u)
• DEN ml, SEA ml, TB ml (2u to win 12.24u)
• CHI +6.5, DEN ml, SEA ml, CAR +10, LAC +3.5, PIT ml, TB ml (2.5u to win 97.83u)
• I have a few parlays in for another 2.6u and some Free Bets.

Teasers (1-2, +16.35u)

• GB pk***,*** DEN +10.5 (FB to win 11.03u)

BBDLS (0-41, -33.99u)

• I have 1.7u of BBDLS in and some FB wagers.

Week 7 Recap: Week 7 was a mess. I didn't have time to commit to a full article and my single suffered because of it. Fortunately we hit our 1pm parlay. Side note, we were Seahawks winning away from a BBDLS! Start tailing, we will deliver a Big Boy soon! 🤓
Singles (6-8, -3.1u)
Parlays (1-3, +17.09u)
Teasers (none)
BBDLS (0-2, -2.2u)
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SUNDAY GAMES
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Indianapolis at Detroit: We start of the day with one of the more interesting match ups. Seems like an normal non conference match up, but both of these teams are looking to build some moment and give themselves a shot at a wild card spot. I know, we are only in week 8. But the Lions need every win they can get and the Colts schedule is about to get much harder.
The Colts do have the better record and the rest advantage in this one, coming off a bye. However, they have benefitted from a very easy schedule to open the 2020 season. Their four wins have come against teams with a combined 7-19-1 record. And their struggles have come on the road (1-2, losses to the Jaguars and Browns).
Detroit is looking to get above .500 and be relevant in their division (btw they are like +1200 right now to win the north and they have a real soft spot in the schedule ahead...) They are coming off a last second TD win vs Atlanta and the vibes are flowing.
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Minnesota at Green Bay: Battle for the NFC North. GB comes into this game off an easy win in Texas. Their offense again could not be stopped. It has looked monstrous this year, however looking closer it put up 40.7 ppg on 459.7 ypg over their first three games, but has averaged just 327.7 ypg and 25 ppg over their last three games and Aaron Jones is still out. On the other side, the GB secondary hasn't been very good. To make matters worse on the defensive side of the ball, 6 players (YES SIX) from the linebacking core are listed QUES.
On the other side, we have the crap storm of the Vikings. The offense has started the season slow, they are 1-5 and have been abysmal on defense this year. On a positive note they are coming off a bye and get Dalvin Cook back this week. He was almost irrelevant in the first match up as GB got out to such an early lead, MIN running the ball was not a play called.
Forecasts for Sunday are calling for high winds in Green Bay and my Algo has this as only GB -3/3.5. We are looking at MIN coming out faster with the added rest and game planning. If that game scrip plays out, it should give MIN the advantage to utilize Cook more than the first match up and allow MIN some opportunities to score and cover. With that game script the algo likes Cook props and Cousins to have a high rate of success on his play action drops.
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New England at Buffalo: Another divisional game, this one could have actual implications on the AFC East winner. With a win here, NE can erase the last few weeks of poor performances and positive covid tests and game reschedules and restricted practices. Again, we should have another poor weather game as Winter is Coming. If this wasn't such a weird year I would say easy win for NE. Mcdrmit hasn't beaten Bellichek yet as coach of the Bills and three of those losses have come with Allen as the starter. In the six career games against the Patriots the Bills have scored: 17, 16, 12, 10, 6, 3. That's 10.7 points per game (The three games that Allen started, the Bills scored 17, 12 and 10).
However, this isn't a normal year and this isn't the normal Pats. Their run defense has been shit, giving up 132 rushing yard per game and their offense......Well. Only time will tell if this recent offensive slump is a blip because of covid and Cam or if Cam really is just done and NE is going to have to rebuild. My algo has this flagged as a heavy under game, however the value on that may be missed as the total has dropped nearly a TD since open. Still in a cold, divisional game, predicted under, I still see value on the the team catching points.
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Tennessee at Cincinnati: WTF is this line movement?! This is one of the crazier spreads/totals for me. My algo see this as a PK/TEN-1 with a Total of 54.5. The markets opened up around 3.5/55.5. Fairly reasonable as TEN is a one loss team and CIN is a 1 win team. However as the week progressed the money is 90/80 on TEN and the spread has moved up to -7 in most places. with the total having RLM and dropping?! I know CIN has Mixon and some offensive linemen out but DAMN, up to 7!? Five of Tennessee’s six games this year have been decided by a possession or less, they are 2-5 ATS in the last seven games... ANNNNDD Cincinnati has covered in five of its last six games... Couple this with TEN coming off a hard loss to PIT AND they have a shitty secondary. I don't see how Burrow and the Bengals don't keep this game within one score. Personally I think this game is worth a little sprinkle on the moneyline!!
*Yes, I know the Titans have Henry and the Bengals have one of the worst run defenses. But TEN offense vs CIN defense isn't the only matchup in the game.\*
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Las Vegas at Cleveland: Two teams that I think will be fighting for an AFC wildcard spot behind the Steelers come the end of the year. LV is coming off a loss to Tampa Bay, but were in the game until a disaster of a 4th quarter. Cleveland is coming off a last second win over divisional rivals the Bengals but lost OBJ in the process. Chubb is still out but Hunt has been covering well in the RB department.
My algo has this as a PK so I can't help but look at the LV side. Both of these teams have horrible secondaries and I will be looking at this game for a SGP.
Sidenote, CLE last 2 seasons as a favorite they are 6-8-1and as a favorite of 4 of less they are 2-5-1 ATS.
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New York Jets at Kansas City: Seriously, just like last week's Jets game, not much to say. Record points spread. Why do I want to touch this? They covered vs the Bills last week, but KC? At home? And do I want to bet on a team favored by 3 TDs? Just skip this game except for KC in your survivor pools. (Except maybe look at Bell revenge game against the Jets?)
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LA Rams at Miami: Rams are coming off an impressive win against the Bears, but now travel East for a 1pm game on a short week. MIA is coming off back to back wins AND a BYE week. However, even with that momentum, the head coach thinks it's Tua Time for a change. So this week, MIA will have it's recent draft pick starting at QB over Fitzmagic. Does this mean the people at MIA know that NE is going to win and they have a shot tooo? OR does it mean they think BUF has this division wrapped up, so they might as well give next years QB some real game time? Only time will tell I guess.
Surprising to me, my algo actually has this game as a Pickem/ MIA -1 and it favors a low scoring affair. Another surprise is the majority of the money is on LA yet the spread hasn't budged. This is usually a clear sign for me to ride with the dog, however I don't know anything about TUA. My algo thinks Fitzmagic is in. So I am not sure how to proceed here.
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Pittsburgh at Baltimore: Here we are. One of the potential AFC Championship matchups. Undefeated PIT heading into 5-1 Baltimore for an AFC North showdown. Pittsburgh Came out strong vs the Titans last week, but in the second half flipped and almost gave the game away. The Ravens are coming off a bye and while their offense isn't putting up MVP type numbers like last year, they are still getting the job done.
To me this one is simple. PIT is the hot team right now, public perception is through the roof. They are now on their second back to back road game taking on Harbaugh off a bye and unfortunately for the Steelers he Ravens 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS after bye under him.
Now, you might say, " Create, what about that Pitt defense?! They are 6-0 for a reason!"
To which I would say, in his career, Lamar is 3-0 vs top 5 defenses, one being the PATs last year.
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LA Chargers at Denver: A divisional game between two teams at the bottom looking up. The next few years should be interesting for these teams. Id say the Chargers have a higher ceiling, but only time will tell. My algo has LA as -1.5 for this one so no heavy leans.
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New Orleans at Chicago: NO coming off a big comeback win in a divisional game. Chicago coming off a loss on MNF and now a short week. My algo actually has this as CHI PK/-1. Im guessing the line is so far different because of the MNF loss? Either way, a home team with a good defense, catching points...Sign me up
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I am leaving SNF and MNF off for now. It is 10am and I would like to post with enough time for you guys to utilize and enjoy.
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I have about 30u of Free Bets to use over the next 4 weeks. Im sure they will get sprinkled mostly in the parlay section.
Singles (44-53, -10.59u)

• DET +3 (2u to win 2u)
• MIN 1Q +0.5 (2.2u to win 2u)
• MIN Team Total over 21 (3.3u to win 3u)
• MIN first to 10 points (1u to win 1.4u)
• MIN +7 (1.25u to win 1u)
• Kirk Cousins to have a Passer Rating of 110+ (1u to win 1u)
• Dalvin Cook 75+ Rushing Yards & to Score a TD (2u to win 2.4u)
• Lamar Jackson & Cam Newton 50 or more Rushing Yards Each (1.5u to win 2.78u)
• CIN +7.5 (2.4u to win 2u)
• Joe Burrow 275+ Pass Yards & AJ Green 75+ Receiving Yards (2u to win 3.25u)
• Joe Burrow to have a Passer Rating of 115+ (1u to win 2u)
• CIN Team Total 21 Over (2.2u to win 2u)
• AJ Green 53.5 total receiving yards Over (1.5u to win 1.3u)
• A.J. Green 104 receiving yards Over (0.5u to win 1.95u)
• MIA 1Q +0.5 (2.65u to win 2u)
• BAL ml (11u to win 6u) \This is under a First Bet free roll promo. If it loses, I get the wager back\**
• PIT Team Total 20 Under (2.1u to win 2u)
• BAL to lead FH/FT (1.5u to win 1.5u)
• Mark Andrews & Jarvis Landry to Score a TD Each (2u to win 11.75u)
• Darren Waller Anytime TD (1u to win 1.25u)
• George Kittle Anytime TD (1u to win 1u)

Parlays (5-18, +2.5u)

• The stArt of War - Patriots(+4.5), Lions(+3.5) & Vikings(+6.5) @ +550 (0.5u to win 2.75u)
• KC ml, TB ml, CHI ml, BAL ml, CIN +8.5, MIN +8.5, LV +3.5 (FB to win 129.94u)
• TB ml, CIN +10.5, LV +4.5., MIN +10.5, BAL +4.5, CHI +8.5 (FB to win 42.76u)
• Prop play with Waller, Kittle, Robinson, Jefferson, and Keenan Allen (1u to win 36.41u)

Teasers (1-2, +16.35u)

• None this week, however good candidates are DET, LV, CHI, NE and the UNDER (before it dropped a TD) and the LAMIA Under.

BBDLS (0-36, -31.29u)

• I have 5 in for a total of 2.7u

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Thanks for reading! Good luck to all! :D

Thursday Night Recap: Well, I think that game told us everything we need to know about JAX. They are going to be very inconsistent. To play the games they played in week 1 and 2 and then come home and put up a stinker against a bottom team in the league... So, the Jags are now in my list of teams in 2020 that I will bet as dogs, but never as favorites.
We did ok on the evening. +1 Unit and our BBDLS is live going into the UFC fight tomorrow.
Singles (1-1,+2u)
Parlays (0-1, -1u)
Teasers (none)
BBDLS (still alive) Update, Costa got rocked. BBDLS dead!
Weeks 3 is upon us. Lets check out the match-ups! :D
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1PM Games
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LV at NE: Both teams looked pretty great offensively last week. Cam is the only other player I still seem some value on for MVP. The most important thing to me in this game is Coach vs Coach.
Is there more confidence in Gruden and his defense vs Bellichek calling for Cam? OR Bellichek and his defense at home vs Derrick Carr traveling across the country?
This early in the season is the time when its any given Sunday, but on a short week for LV and a full week for NE, don't see NE giving this one up at home very often. The spread is a bit high, but NE looks like a great candidate for a Teaser.
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LAR at Buf: First undefeated matchup of the day. It seems as if the Rams have a better pass rush, but the Bills have the better overall defense. The Rams are traveling East again after flying to Philly last week and back to LA.
Goff looks great this year. He Superbowl slumped last year; having no running game hurt him tremendously. But, this year it seems as if the team is finding an offensive rhythm and giving Goff enough time to spread the ball around.
My Algo is high on LA and says this spread should be LA -2. Since our Algo has LA at a 55% win, win or lose, this is an easy +EV Bet on the Rams. Also another great candidate for a Teaser.
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Hou at Pit: Oh boy, am I excited to see this one! PIT really let me down last week allowing DEN, with a back up QB, to get a back door cover. HOU SHOULD be undervalued as they are 0-2. However, lets remember both of their losses came to the Chiefs and Ravens...
I have this weird feeling this is going to be one of those road dog gets an early lead and the favorite has to battle back to try and last drive win or not. It is extremely hard for 0-2 teams to make the playoffs so I look for all the 0-2 teams to give MAXIMUM POWAH! The Texans are the best 0-2 team IMO.
With a middle of the road total, the Texans not only look like another good candidate for a Teaser but have value on the spread and the ML.
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SF at NYG: What will happen in this game?! NY Giants, Saquan, out. SF, Everyone out. I have gone against SF in both weeks and so far they are 1-1. If there was another week to fade them, I am sure this has to be it. Back to back road game, Missing like 10 key players including the QB and Star TE...
I can't see laying points with SF with those conditions, that leads me to believe there is value on the NY points side. BTW, another 0-2 team. You know they want to compete till the end.
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Ten at Min: I am extremely torn on this one. I think TEN D still has some work to do to become playoff ready. But, the Min D has a ton of work to do just to win a game... I feel like MIN and PHL are on down years but it is sooooo hard for me to bet against Zimmer, especially at home. Depending on game script, this could be Dalvin Cooks wake up game.
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Was at Cle: This seems like I could give almost the same analysis as the Cincy/CLE game. Cle should put this away but 7 is a big number so be weary of backdoor covers. If CLE wants a shot at the extra wildcard spot this year, they NEED to take care of business this game. Washington on back to back road games and a non-favorable schedule this year. This should be good practice for two teams trending in opposite directions.
CLE is my Favorite pick in the teasers this week.
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Cin at Phl: Well, well well. The only battle of two 0-2 teams. I have been riding the Eagles suck train for the first two weeks now, and Joe Burrow getting two backdoor covers on his first two starts has me wanting to ride that train again.
The Eagles did look ok for the first half of last weeks game, but after a pick from Wentz, the energy shifted and the Eagles were left behind. Even IF the Eagles can pull it together as a team to get a win, I still like the young Burrow to fight till the end of games.
Might even sprinkle a little ML action on Cincy here...Eagles D still feels like hot trashhhhh
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Chi at Atl: Our last 0-2 team (that has a chance) Chi has looked...ok. I take it back, Tenn isnt the worst 2-0 team, Chicago is. Without an outlier performance 4th quarter in game one and the Giants losing Saquan in game 2, Chi could theoretically be 0-2. ATL defense is starting off the year like they did last year, by just getting dressed but not really playing. This is looking like another big offensive year for Matt Ryan, followed by some horrible coaching decisions and stupid losses by his defense playing the worst zone defense known to man.
In this game though? I have to side with the 0-2 home favorite. There is a reason they are 0-2 vs a 2-0 team and still giving points. You don't see MIN as a clear favorite and they have a coach that knows what he is doing!
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NYJ at Ind: I cant write about this game. I very much dislike Rivers and don't like taking him when he has to cover more than a TD. I already gave him his chance in week 1. I think he is full capable of winning a blowout in this game and dominating the news cycle next week, but I just cant take this many points with anyone other than the Chiefs and Ravens
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4PM Games
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Car at LAC: All the interesting games to talk about today and then this game is squeaked in there. CMC, gone. Tyrod Taylor, out for another week at least. Herbert...dropping sherbet scoops out to everyone.
Honestly, offensively, CAR didn't look that bad. Teddy looks like young Watson, in that he's chased everywhere but still makes some things happen. LA with a 1st time starting backup QB that didn't know he was playing... had success and honestly Herbert looked a lot like Drew Lock last year. This game has some small potential for an upset and 6.5 for a 2nd time starting QB is....interesting but I think the LA defense is what carries this one to a victory.
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Det at AZ: This is one of those games that scares me. Every week there is a game with a 6-9 point spread where there is an upset. Outside of the Bengals and Texans, this is that game on my radar this week. But i am already over betting on DET for the year. AZ has started on fire. Is this DET defense that gave up 21 to Trubitsky, IN THE 4TH QUARTER, gonna slow down the red hot cards? I'm not stepping on that train. This game looks to be my stay away game. Lets see how these teams develop before we put too much stock in them.
This is a potentially great game for props though!
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TB at Den: Still not sure what's going on with either of these two teams. TB looked decent last week, but it was vs CAR... Brady is not yet in rhythm but he's getting decent protection. Denver backdoor covered last week after Lock went down with an injury, being replaced by Jeff Driskle. Jeff had a decent game and screwed all the Steelers spread bettors. I think what's more interesting then a spread in this one would be the Under. With QB changes for Den, Brady not yet in form, and both teams having decent defenses, this game looks primed for some weird 16-10.
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Dal at Sea: The Titans game and these next two were the hardest for me to judge on such little data. I am obviously very high on SEA this year predicting them to win the NFC and have a great shot at a Superbowl this year. I am conversely not that hot on Dallas. I think the whole NFC East is a work in progress. Dallas is full of offense, but until they can have a healthy season with a top 5 defense, I don't think they can go all the way. This years defensive losses are particularly rough and it's only week 2. Both teams have offenses capable of lighting it up at any time so for that reason I think it will be in both teams interest to keep the other offence off the field. This means sustained drives to eat up as much clock as possible. I also think that Dallas will be awfully full of themselves (warranted or not) from last weeks come from behind win. In a game where I am going to contrarily take the under, I must also take all those points.
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Sunday Night Football
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GB at NO: The last game of the day, also very hard one to dissect with little data. It seems as if Rodgers is coming out going for an MVP type season. Brees on the other hand looks...old. My algo has GB +1.5 here and normally I would think Vegas was just shading because NO is a team the public likes to bet on at home. However the public perception is NO lost on primetime as a favorite last week while GB is 2-0 with back to back 40 point offensive performances. And they are still giving GB 3 and in some books 3.5...
This worries me. Vegas is usually more right than wrong and primetime games tend to lean opposite of public perception. I may have to take NO just based on the fact that 70% of the moneyline money is on GB yet they are still a 3 point favorite.
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I am pretty light on wagers this week. I am currently moving and so I have had a little less time to look over the full cards and props. I do like weeks 3-5 as a sweet spot for underdog value as the markets try to find the right prices for each team.
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Singles (9-10, -3.15u)

• LAR +2.5 (2u to win 2u)
• HOU +4.5 (1.1u to win 1u)
• Kareem Hunt 19.5 Rec Yards Over (1.15u to win 1u)
• DAL +5.5 (1.1u to win 1u)

Parlays (0-3, -6.5u)

• Israel Adesanya ML, CLE ml, IND ml, NE ml, BAL ml (9u to win 33.87u)
• Kamara 75 Rush yards and TD (Raiders/NO TNF), Cincy +6.5, Ten ml, IND ml, Dal +5.5, BAL ml (3u to win 97u)

Teasers (1-1, +38.85u)

• CLE -1, ATL +3.5, TB PK and U48.5 (6u to win 15.6u)
• NE Pk, CLE PK, LAR +8.5, NYG +10.5, HOU +10.5, CIN +12.5, BAL +3.5 (4u to win 24u)

BBDLS (0-4, -3.4u)

• I have 10 BBDLS in for a total of 9.2u. They are all 10+ team parlays getting greater than 100-1 odds. If I typed them all up it would double the size of this page. These are all most likely losing tickets but if one hits I will post the screenshot.

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DraftKings $2 Million Pick em National Championship $1Million for First
Week 2 (3-2) Better! Its expected that as I gather more data, these picks should better. Lets keep this train rolling to its resting place for the remainder of the year, :D 5-0 city!
Overall (4-6)
Week 3

• HOU +3.5
• CINCY +5.5
• LAR +1.5
• NYG +3.5
• DAL +4.5

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Thanks for reading and good luck to all! :D

Part 3 of 3

Part 1 Right Here: https://dfaroto.com/nfl/week-15-matchup-strategy-guide-part-1

Part 2 Right Here: https://dfaroto.com/nfl/week-15-matchup-strategy-guide-part-2

GLOSSARY

DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average): calculates a team's success based on the down-and-distance of each play during the season, then calculates how much more or less successful each team is compared to the league average.
DVOA Pass/Run Defense Rank: Team’s NFL rank in DVOA pass or run defense so far this season. #1 means best DEF against the pass/run, #32 means worst DEF against the pass/run.
Weighted DEFENSE: is adjusted so that earlier games in the season become gradually less important. It better reflects how the team was playing at the end of the season.
ATS = Against the spread
DVOA from https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef/2019

Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders (-6.5)

Jaguars ATS: 5-8-0 Raiders ATS: 6-7-0
Projected Team Totals: Jaguars 19.5 Raiders 26

Jaguars

Opp (OAK) Pass DVOA: #31
Opp (OAK) Run DVOA: #27
Opp (OAK) Weighted DEF: #31
Injuries to Watch DEF (OAK): LB Marquel Lee (Q) LB Kyle Wilber (Q) CB Daryl Worley (Q) S Erik Harris (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (JAX): WR DJ Chark (OUT)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): D.J. Chark (20%) Leonard Fournette (19%) Dede Westbrook (17%) Chris Conley (14%) Seth DeValve (11%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Leonard Fournette (77%, 18, 6) Ryquell Armstead (23%, 2, 2)

QB/WTE Breakdown

The Jags got blasted at home against the Chargers last week, and Gardner Minshew (2QB stream) did little to instill confidence that he is an upgrade over Nick Foles. While last week was a struggle, Minshew gets an extremely vulnerable Raiders secondary this time around. Oakland has the 31st ranked pass defense by DVOA, and has given up the 2nd most FPPG to QBs on the season. While it would be unwise to trust the rookie signal caller in a 1QB league, he makes for a possible streamer in 2QB or superflex leagues, and should be considered a mid-range QB2 with some upside in Sunday’s matchup. The loss of one of his top weapons does downgrade his outlook slightly, however..
DJ Chark has been ruled out for Week 15 with an ankle injury, leaving the Jags without their most explosive offensive playmaker. That should provide Dede Westbrook (upgrade) with an opportunity to see a high volume of targets against this leaky Raiders secondary. Oakland has allowed the 13th most FPPG to WRs, but their 31st ranked pass DVOA portrays a team that is quite vulnerable through the air. Chris Conley (upgrade) should also see a bump in usage, but he has been extremely boom or bust this season, and is reliant on big plays. Consider Westbrook a borderline WR2 under the circumstances, while Conley can be viewed as risk-reward WR3/4, just know his floor is extremely low. Keelan Cole will step into 3-WR sets with Chark on the sidelines, but he isn’t a realistic fantasy option at this point. None of the Jags TEs have been able to stand out after dealing with so many injuries, but Nick O’Leary did snag a TD last week. O’Leary is a hail mary TE2, although he does have a favorable matchup against a defense ceding the 4th most FPPG to TEs.
RB Breakdown
The running game didn’t have any more success than the passing game against the Chargers, as Leonard Fournette (auto-start) was held to 63 total scoreless yards. The Raiders are less vulnerable to the run than the pass, but have given up the 9th most FPPG to RBs, so Fournette remains a volume based RB1. He’s especially valuable in PPR leagues, as he is consistently among the RB target leaders each week. Ryquell Armstead (stash) is the clear handcuff to Fournette, so roster him if you want to have insurance through the playoffs.

Raiders

Opp (JAX) Pass DVOA: #21
Opp (JAX) Run DVOA: #31
Opp (JAX) Weighted DEF: #29
Injuries to Watch DEF (JAX): None
Injuries to Watch OFF (OAK): WR Hunter Renfrow (OUT) OT Trent Brown (Q) RB Josh Jacobs (Q, expected to play) WR Marcell Ateman (Q)
Key WCB matchups: Tyrell Williams vs. A.J. Bouye (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Darren Waller (19%) Hunter Renfrow (18%) Tyrell Williams (14%) Jalen Richard (11%) Zay Jones (10%) DeAndre Washington (8%) Josh Jacobs (7%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: DeAndre Washington (63%, 20, 7) Jalen Richard (38%, 9, 3)
QB/WTE Breakdown
A nightmare second half of the season continued for the Raiders last week in a blowout loss to the Titans, but Derek Carr (2QB only) was able to finish with a serviceable final fantasy line. Carr has gone over 21 points just once this season, so his ceiling is not something to get excited about. The Jags have given up the 11th most FPPG to QBs, so Carr has a reasonable floor, but can’t be viewed as anything more than a mid-range QB2. Leave him on the wire in most leagues.
A battle with plantar fasciitis might help to explain Tyrell Williams’ (drop) extreme dropoff over the second half of the season, but it appears the wideout will continue playing through the pain this week against the Jags. He hasn’t been a worthwhile starting option in quite some time, and the Jags surrender the 13th fewest FPPG to WRs, so consider him a TD or bust WR4, and keep him on your benches outside extremely deep leagues. Darren Waller (volume upgrade) is the real WR1 on this team, and his high weekly target floor makes him an attractive TE option at a position that is so heavily TD-dependent. The Jags have given up the 11th fewest FPPG to TEs, but Waller is too involved to be anything less than a top-6 TE1. Get him fired up this week to ensure you get a stable floor from that spot on your roster. No other Raiders pass catcher has emerged as fantasy relevant, so Waller is likely the only player that should be near a starting lineup this week.
RB Breakdown
Stud rookie RB Josh Jacobs (upgrade if healthy) was unable to play through his shoulder injury last week, leading to a workhorse level role for DeAndre Washington (stash). Jacobs currently plans to play on Sunday, so owners should put Washington on benches, and continue to leave Jalen Richard on the waiver wire. The Jags are an exploitable matchup on the ground - 4th most FPPG to RBs - so if Jacobs is active he needs to be in all lineups as a solid RB2. Washington should remain rostered as a solid handcuff.
Score Prediction: Raiders 21, Jaguars 20

Cleveland Browns (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals

Browns ATS: 5-7-1 Cardinals ATS: 7-5-1
Projected Team Totals: Browns 25.5 Cardinals 23

Browns

Opp (ARI) Pass DVOA: #29
Opp (ARI) Run DVOA: #13
Opp (ARI) Weighted DEF: #26
Injuries to Watch DEF (ARI): CB Kevin Peterson (Q) LB Joe Walker (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (CLE): C JC Tretter (Q) OT Chris Hubbard (Q)
Key WCB matchups: Odell Beckham vs. Patrick Peterson (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Jarvis Landry (30%) Odell Beckham (23%) Kareem Hunt (17%) Antonio Callaway (12%) David Njoku (12%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Nick Chubb (70%, 16, 1) Kareem Hunt (62%, 11, 3)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Cleveland won the battle of Ohio last week, it wasn’t pretty, and it wasn’t without drama. Baker Mayfield (upgrade) was inconsistent yet again, throwing for only 192 scoreless yards, with two interceptions. He’s sandwiched two serviceable fantasy outings with three that weren’t over the last five, so a bounce back seems likely. Arizona has proven time and again they can’t guard anyone, ranking 29th in Pass DVOA and 26th in Weighted Defense - ceding 24.5 FPPG to QBs, and 25.4 to WRs. Mayfield becomes an appealing matchup based QB1 this week, consider him a top-10 option.
The Cleveland passing game has been a wasteland all season, with Jarvis Landry (upgrade PPR) being the only solid fantasy asset. Odell Beckham is having the worst season of his career, and is reportedly playing through a sports hernia. His expected shadow matchup with CB Patrick Peterson isn’t imposing, as Peterson has struggled against No. 1 WRs (Rotoworld). A viable fantasy day isn’t out of the question, yet OBJ is far from trustworthy at this point in the season, especially since we know now he’s been playing through injury. That being said, Arizona cedes explosive pass plays (20+yards) at a 12% clip, 3rd worst in the NFL (sharpfootballstats). Consider him a boom-or-bust WR2 in the great on-paper matchup. Landry on the other hand, has vacuumed up at least seven targets in every game over the last five weeks, clearing 10 targets in three out of five. He’s seeing monster usage, and there’s no reason to expect it to slow down. He’s a borderline WR1, and needs to be in all lineups. David Njoku returned last week, splitting time with fellow tight ends Stephen Carlson, and Ricky Seals-Jones. This is a smash spot for the position - ARI hemorrhages 13.1 FPPG to TEs, league worst - but with Njoku popping up on the injury report again with a knee issue, plus the timeshare at tight end, there really isn’t a viable fantasy play here.
RB Breakdown
Like many other backfields in the NFL, the Cleveland Browns are now utilizing a committee, to the dismay of Nick Chubb (upgrade standard) owners everywhere. Fortunately, both Chubb and Kareem Hunt (upgrade PPR) are seeing solid touch counts, and having both on the field at the same time has become a regular occurrence since Hunt became available. Arizona possesses a much better Run DVOA than Pass DVOA, but game-script and scoring opportunities should work in favor of the Cleveland backfield. Arizona plays at the 3rd fastest pace in the NFL, so there should be plenty of opportunities to go around. Consider Chubb an RB1, and Hunt a borderline RB2 play in PPR settings - ARI cedes 19.5 FPPG to the position.

Cardinals

Opp (CLE) Pass DVOA: #13
Opp (CLE) Run DVOA: #25
Opp (CLE) Weighted DEF: #19
Injuries to Watch DEF (CLE): DE Olivier Vernon (OUT) CB Eric Murray (OUT)
Injuries to Watch OFF (ARI): WR Andy Isabella (Q) OL Justin Pugh (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Christian Kirk (24%) Larry Fitzgerald (19%) Kenyan Drake (16%) Pharoh Cooper (11%) KeeSean Johnson (9%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Kenyan Drake (65%, 14, 3) David Johnson (37%, 5, 2)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Cardinals season has taken a downward plunge in recent weeks, and Kyler Murray and company have only managed to score 24 combined points in back-to-back matchups (Rotoworld). Murray has made some downright silly mistakes, and while some of it can be chalked up to being a rookie, some mistakes shouldn’t be seen at the NFL level. His O-line isn’t doing him any favors either, he’s the most-sacked QB of 2019 (teamrankings.com). At home against Cleveland is the easiest matchup he’s seen in recent weeks, but it’s no cakewalk - Cleveland has a sturdy secondary, ranking in the top-half for Pass DVOA - and cedes just 18.2 FPPG to QBs and 20.6 to WRs. Still, Murray has demonstrated a high-floor through multiple tough matchups, and warrants every week QB1 consideration. Just be aware that although he always has boom potential, this week projects more as a floor performance.
Although he’s done little since his Week 10 explosion, Christian Kirk’s (upgrade volume) 8.8 targets per game rank 13th among wideouts this season (Rotoworld). Again, the matchup doesn’t scream boom week, but Cleveland has been inconsistent at best this season, and Kirk’s volume should keep him in the WR3 ranks. Larry Fitzgerald, after turning back the clock in the beginning of the season, has bottomed out over the second half. He shouldn’t be considered anything more than a low-end WR4, so look elsewhere. The auxiliary passing options shouldn't be considered for Arizona.
RB Breakdown
Like the Cleveland backfield, the Arizona backfield is devolving into a two man RBBC. Unlike Cleveland, it’s not bearing fruit in the way of fantasy points for either running back. Kenyan Drake has ceded snaps to David Johnson since the bye week, and at this point neither can be fully trusted. Drake is the preferred option, and the matchup is good on paper, but due to DJ’s involvement, he’s no more than a back-end RB2. DJ is a big-balls dart throw; it can’t be recommended. CLE cedes 18.6 FPPG to RBs.
Score Prediction: Browns 24, Cardinals 21

Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers (-10.5)

Falcons ATS: 5-8-0 49ers ATS: 8-4-1
Projected Team Totals: Falcons 18.75 49ers 29.25

Falcons

Opp (SF) Pass DVOA: #2
Opp (SF) Run DVOA: #9
Opp (SF) Weighted DEF: #2
Injuries to Watch DEF (SF): DE Dee Ford (OUT) DT DJ Jones (OUT) CB Richard Sherman (OUT) S Jaquiski Tartt (OUT) DT Jullian Taylor (OUT) CB K’Waun Williams (OUT)
Injuries to Watch OFF (ATL): OG James Carpenter (OUT) OT Ty Sambrailo (OUT)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Julio Jones (22%) Calvin Ridley (20%) Russell Gage (16%) Austin Hooper (16%) Devonta Freeman (11%) Christian Blake (10%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Devonta Freeman (67%, 21, 4) Brian Hill (19%, 9, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Atlanta’s second half resurgence continued against a rudderless Carolina team last week. Matt Ryan (downgrade) has returned to form of late, posting back-to-back solid fantasy performances. His ankle injury may have been the reason for the mid-season stumble, but either way, against a ferocious 49ers defense and without offensive weapon Calvin Ridley (OUT-IR), just isn’t the time to chase points. While the argument can be made that the San Francisco defense is banged up, they still possess most of the pass rushers that have carried them this season. Atlanta has struggled to keep Ryan upright, he’s been sacked the 5th most in the NFL (teamrankings). He’s no more than a back-end QB2 in a tough matchup - SF gives up just 15 FPPG to QBs and 17.9 to WRs.
Ridley’s injury vacated 20% of the target share to Atlanta’s pass catchers, and Russell Gage is the best bet to assume his snaps and some of his target share. Yet, he still projects as a distant third option to Julio Jones (upgrade volume) and Austin Hooper (upgrade volume). The remaining receivers split snaps evenly last week, and aren’t realistic options in the tough draw. Julio should be peppered with targets san Ridley, and should be treated as an every-week WR1 regardless of matchup. Same goes for Hooper, both should be active in most lineups.
RB Breakdown
Since returning from injury, Devonta Freeman (upgrade volume) has accumulated 20+ touches in two of three games. As long as he’s operating as the clear lead back and receiving the bulk of the touches, he’ll continue to be a floor-play RB2. The matchup is imposing - SF cedes just 12.2 FPPG to RBs - but Freeman’s volume should stabilize his floor, just don’t expect a big day.

49ers

Opp (ATL) Pass DVOA: #26
Opp (ATL) Run DVOA: #16
Opp (ATL) Weighted DEF: #23
Injuries to Watch DEF (ATL): DE Allen Bailey (OUT) CB Isaiah Oliver (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (SF): None
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): George Kittle (23%) Deebo Samuel (20%) Emmanuel Sanders (17%) Kendrick Bourne (12%) Ross Dwelley (12%) Tevin Coleman (8%) Raheem Mostert (5%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Raheem Mostert (60%, 12, 2) Matt Breida (18%, 7, 1) Tevin Coleman (16%, 3, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The 49ers won the game of the year last week, in an exciting shootout on the road against the New Orleans Saints, 48-46. Jimmy Garoppolo (upgrade) showed critics a side of him many thought he didn’t possess, by not just managing the game, but gun slinging his way to victory when facing a deficit. He may be more than an elite game manager, rolling up 349-yards passing, with four touchdowns and an interception. On tap is an exploitable secondary that has been dissected by opposing signal callers routinely - ATL cedes 22.1 FPPG to QBs and 24.3 to WRs - Jimmy G is a very attractive QB1 streaming option in the plus matchup.
The addition of Emmanuel Sanders (upgrade) and Deebo Samuel, with the emergence of Kendrick Bourne, has created an explosive receiving corps for the 49ers. The three have settled in as the fulltime wideouts, clearing up what used to be a mess of a rotation. Sanders and Samuel are both solid fantasy plays against an Atlanta team that boasts a true pass funnel; ranking much higher in Run DVOA than Pass DVOA. Adding to that, CB Desmond Trufant has been placed on IR, creating an even softer matchup. The concern is volume. Positive game-script early could erase the need for passing, so hopefully the injuries to San Francisco’s defense allow Atlanta to stay in the game. Consider Sanders a WR2, and Samuel an upside WR3. Kendrick Bourne is a no more than a DFS dart throw. George Kittle is an every week top-3 option at tight end. Fire him up - ATL cedes 7.5 FPPG to the position.
RB Breakdown
Two camps exist when it comes to the 49ers backfield. There are those that think Raheem Mostert has completed a hostile takeover, and is now the lead back. And there are those that think a Kyle Shanahan offense takes the hot hand approach, and that Matt Breida or Tevin Coleman could be next in-line to have the big week. Kyle Shanahan has stated that Mostert has “earned” his role as the lead ball-carrier, but we’ve seen that talk before from coaches, just look at Ronald Jones. Either way, Mostert has earned every-week RB2 consideration, but be warned, this backfield can change in an instant. Breida and Coleman are much riskier propositions, and can’t be started as more than desperation dart throws. They’ll likely still be involved in some capacity, but it’s not worth betting on.
Score Prediction: 49ers 30, Falcons 17

LA Rams (-1.5) at Dallas Cowboys

Rams ATS: 9-4-0 Cowboys ATS: 7-6-0
Projected Team Totals: Rams 25.25 Cowboys 23.75

Rams

Opp (DAL) Pass DVOA: #24
Opp (DAL) Run DVOA: #19
Opp (DAL) Weighted DEF: #21
Injuries to Watch DEF (DAL): LB Leighton Vander Esch (OUT) LB Sean Lee (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (LAR): TE Gerald Everett (OUT) OT Rob Havenstein (D)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Robert Woods (30%) Tyler Higbee (19%) Cooper Kupp (16%) Gerald Everett (15%) Josh Reynolds (10%) Todd Gurley (9%) Brandin Cooks (7%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Todd Gurley (80%, 27, 4) Malcolm Brown (20%, 5, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
After his first blow-up week in a long time, Jared Goff (streamer) returned to his mediocre 2019 levels in Week 14’s win over Seattle, at least in terms of fantasy points. The positive is that the Rams offense suddenly looks at least partially back to its old ways, scoring 28 and 34 points the last two weeks, albeit against questionable defenses. This week, Goff will take aim at the Cowboys - 24th ranked pass DVOA but allowing the 13th fewest FPPG to QBs. Dallas got lit up by Mitchell Trubisky last week, and are on a downward trend overall, so this actually sets up as a favorable matchup for Goff. Consider him on the QB1/2 borderline, and ride him if you are thin at QB as he should be able to produce a point total that lands somewhere in between his last two performances.
What started as a year for the record books has turned into a disappointment in a hurry for Cooper Kupp (start). Despite the Rams being without their top TE Gerald Everett (out again this week) the past few weeks, Kupp hasn’t gone over 70-receiving yards since Week 8. He snagged a TD last week to salvage his day, and could be on the verge of a breakout day with the Rams offense starting to hum again. The Cowboys have given up the 8th fewest FPPG to WRs, so this isn’t an ideal matchup, but Kupp should still be viewed on the WR2/3 borderline and be in most lineups this week. The only consistent producer over the last month at WR for the Rams has been Robert Woods (auto-start). Woods has gone over 90-yards in 4 straight games he’s played in, and looks to be Goff’s #1 target at this point in the season. Consider him a borderline WR1 this week. Brandin Cooks (volume downgrade) just hasn’t seen much volume since returning from his multi-week concussion absence, and played about a third of the offensive snaps last week. He can break a big play at any time, but his role is too tough to trust as more than a WR3/4 at this point. If you have the depth, Cooks should likely be on your bench as only a part-time player in a difficult matchup. With Everett out again this week, Tyler Higbee (volume upgrade) will resume his role as the clear pass-catching TE for the Rams. He’s won a lot of matchups for owners the past two weeks, and should continue to thrive as long as Everett is sidelined. The Cowboys have given up the 10th most FPPG to TEs, so there’s no reason to view Higbee as less than an elite TE1 this week.
RB Breakdown
Perhaps part of the reason that the Rams have looked re-energized the last two weeks is the commitment to the run game with Todd Gurley (volume upgrade). The offensive line and entire team are getting healthier, and Gurley is getting the volume necessary for an RB1 valuation. The Cowboys have given up the 16th fewest FPPG to RBs and have the 19th ranked rush defense by DVOA, so the matchup is basically a wash. Consider Gurley on the RB1/2 borderline, and get him locked into your lineup for a game the Rams absolutely have to win to remain in the playoff race. Malcolm Brown makes for a worthwhile handcuff.

Cowboys

Opp (LAR) Pass DVOA: #9
Opp (LAR) Run DVOA: #3
Opp (LAR) Weighted DEF: #6
Injuries to Watch DEF (LAR): None
Injuries to Watch OFF (DAL): None
Key WCB matchups: Amari Cooper vs. Jalen Ramsey (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Michael Gallup (20%) Amari Cooper (19%) Randall Cobb (15%) Jason Witten (15%) Ezekiel Elliott (10%) Blake Jarwin (8%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Ezekiel Elliott (99%, 21, 5)
QB/WTE Breakdown
While the Cowboys have been a huge disappointment overall, they remain firmly in the playoff race due to the antiquated NFL seeding rules, and their QB Dak Prescott (auto-start) has shown he is deserving of a huge contract extension. The Rams have given up the 12th fewest FPPG to QBs, and have the 9th ranked pass DVOA, but Prescott will be needed for a big day if Dallas is to get a win at home. Their solid projected point total, and Dak’s consistent presence as a top-5 QB in fantasy, means that Prescott should be a fixture in fantasy lineups in the second week of fantasy playoffs. He’s a solid QB1.
Amari Cooper (slight downgrade) may not like the term “garbage time”, but it’s hard to argue that’s not the scenario in which he caught his TD pass and salvaged his day against the Bears. Regardless, Cooper was able to produce despite looking less than 100%, and isn’t on the injury report this week. However, he’s likely to face Jalen Ramsey in shadow coverage this week, which is a concern considering just how good Ramsey has been since landing in LA. Cooper has been more effective against shadow coverage this year than in previous years, and his role in the offense combined with his individual talent make him tough to bench. View him as a high-end WR2 that is capable of breaking Ramsey’s coverage, but could also finish with a disappointing 2-30-0 type of day as well. Michael Gallup (upgrade) has been relatively productive over the last month, and he could benefit from Ramsey’s focus on Cooper. The Rams overall cede the 15th fewest FPPG to WRs, so this is a spot for Gallup to potentially come through for owners. Consider him a mid-range WR2 with upside this week in a game the Boys will likely need to throw heavily to win. Randall Cobb has benefitted from the high volume of passing in the Cowboys rough last five games, but will likely see a lot of highly-graded CB Nickell Robey-Coleman in the slot (PFF). Consider Cobb a low-end WR3 whose ceiling isn’t extremely high, but whose floor makes for a useful asset in deeper leagues. Jason Witten and Blake Jarwin have rendered each other relatively unstartable this season, and both should be viewed as low-volume TE2s. Neither is worth starting this week against a Rams squad giving up the 7th fewest FPPG to TEs.
RB Breakdown
The Cowboys were without Tony Pollard last week, but that didn’t serve to change their game plan much as Ezekiel Elliott (auto-start) has been a workhorse all year long. Pollard is expected to return on Sunday, but Zeke will get his 20+ touches again this week regardless. The Rams are stout on the ground - 3rd best DVOA and 10th fewest FPPG to RBs- but Zeke is an easy RB1 due to his volume and talent. Get him locked into your lineup, and keep Pollard rostered as a feel-good insurance policy.
Score Prediction: Rams 21, Cowboys 17

Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) at LA Chargers

Vikings ATS: 7-6-0 Chargers ATS: 4-7-3
Projected Team Totals: Vikings 24 Chargers 21.5

Vikings

Opp (LAC) Pass DVOA: #20
Opp (LAC) Run DVOA: #23
Opp (LAC) Weighted DEF: #18
Injuries to Watch DEF (LAC): LB Uchenna Nwosu (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (MIN): RB Alexander Mattison (Q) WR Bisi Johnson (Q)
Key WCB matchups: Stefon Diggs vs. Casey Hayward (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Stefon Diggs (20%) Dalvin Cook (15%) Kyle Rudolph (13%) Irv Smith (13%) Bisi Johnson (11%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Dalvin Cook (47%, 20, 2) Alexander Mattison (37%, 16, 2)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Last week was a game that fantasy owners always fear; the home favorite Vikings so outmatched the injury riddled Lions that none of the offensive weapons were needed for a big day to capture the win. Kirk Cousins (low-end QB1) was solid as a game manager, but finished with only 242 yards and 1 TD. This week he’ll likely be in a more competitive game with the Chargers, who have given up the 5th fewest FPPG to QBs. While this should lead to higher volume for Kirk, the matchup concern is a legitimate reason to consider keeping him on the bench. Getting Adam Thielen back from injury should help to establish his floor, but his ceiling isn’t as high considering the Chargers are not often involved in shootouts. Owners can view Cousins as a low-end QB1, and throw him in lineups if they don’t have a safer and higher upside option.
Cousins will have stud receiver Adam Thielen (downgrade) back on the field this week, and that means owners will have a tough decision to make with their lineups. Stefon Diggs (start) is likely to see Casey Hayward in shadow coverage this week, which would leave Thielen with more positive matchups, but Diggs is easier to trust given his body of work throughout the year. The Chargers have given up the 3rd fewest FPPG to WRs this year, giving both receivers a slight downgrade in outlook. Consider Thielen a WR3, and Diggs a WR2. Both have a solid case to be in starting lineups this week, but Diggs is the slightly preferred play. Kyle Rudolph (downgrade) gets a tough potential individual matchup with stud safety Derwin James, and needs to be pushed just outside the TE1 ranks this week. The Chargers have given up the 9th fewest FPPG to TEs, and Rudolph is quite TD-dependent, so consider your options before plugging him in. Irv Smith simply isn’t seeing the volume to be trusted at this point, so he should be viewed as a low-end TE2 in a tough matchup.
RB Breakdown
Fantasy superstar Dalvin Cook (auto-start, upgrade) was subject to the same issue as Cousins, as he saw an uncharacteristic 47% snap share, but still was able to save his line with a few nice runs and a short TD plunge. This week sets up much better for Cook, as the game should be competitive throughout, and the Chargers are more vulnerable to the run than the pass. They’ve given up the 13th most FPPG to RBs and have a bottom-third run DVOA, so get Cook fired up as an elite RB1 once again. Keep Alexander Mattison (stash) rostered as a top-3 handcuff, even if he ends up being ruled out. If Cook were to suffer a setback or pick up a minor injury, Mattison would be an elite RB1 for the fantasy finals assuming he’s healthy.

Chargers

Opp (MIN) Pass DVOA: #11
Opp (MIN) Run DVOA: #7
Opp (MIN) Weighted DEF: #9
Injuries to Watch DEF (MIN): S Jayron Kearse (OUT) CB Xavier Rhodes (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (LAC): None
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Keenan Allen (23%) Hunter Henry (20%) Austin Ekeler (17%) Mike Williams (13%) Melvin Gordon (11%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Austin Ekeler (49%, 12, 5) Melvin Gordon (46%, 17, 5)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Chargers came a bit out of nowhere last week to drop 45 points in their win over the Jags. Philip Rivers (slight downgrade) eclipsed 25 points for the first time this season, and was dealing all game long. He’ll face a stiffer matchup from the Vikings - Minnesota cedes the 11th fewest FPPG to QBs and has the 11th ranked pass DVOA. Consider Rivers a mid-range QB2; his ceiling isn’t extremely high but his weapons should establish his floor as a solid asset in 2QB or superflex leagues.
Still not producing at levels owner are accustomed to, Keenan Allen (start) has at least returned solid value over his past 4 games with good yardage and 2 total TDs. Mike Williams (downgrade PPR) FINALLY scored his first TD of the year, after getting 10 last year, and continues to make impressive contested chunk catches week in and week out. The Vikings have given up the 8th most FPPG to WRs, and Xavier Rhodes is no longer a shutdown shadow corner, so both WRs are worth starting consideration. Consider Allen a WR2, with upside in PPR leagues, and view Williams as a WR3 with an upgrade in standard leagues. The Vikings pass rush is impressive, and the Chargers O-line has struggled to keep Rivers upright against top defensive lines, so having the time to throw downfield might make Allen more productive than Williams this week. Hunter Henry (start) found the end zone last week, and despite some low yardage totals the last month remains a solid TE1 this week. The Vikings have allowed the 14th most FPPG to TEs, so this isn’t a shy-away matchup by any means. Get Henry active unless you have a top-3 alternative, as he might benefit from additional short throws due to Rivers needing to get the ball out quick.
RB Breakdown
Perhaps the most important player to the Chargers this year has been the explosive and dynamic all around back, Austin Ekeler (auto-start). He put up a career-high 213 scrimmage yards in the win last week, which was buoyed by an impressive 84 yard catch and run TD. Melvin Gordon (PPR downgrade) got in on the action by rolling up 84 total yards and a TD, and should continue to handle a slight majority of the carries. Ekeler’s role is slightly more valuable, however, as his looks in the passing game often give him room to make plays in the open field, and give him a higher floor in PPR leagues. Consider Ekeler on the RB1/2 borderline, especially in PPR formats, and Gordon can be viewed as a solid RB2. Both should be in lineups this week, despite the Vikings giving up the 6th fewest FPPG to RBs, but Ekeler is a bit safer as he doesn’t require rushing lanes up the middle or goal-line opportunities to be able to rack up the points.
Score Prediction: Vikings 23, Chargers 16

Indianapolis Colts at New Orleans Saints (-8.5)

Colts ATS: 6-5-2 Saints ATS: 8-5-0
Projected Team Totals: Colts 18.75 Saints 27.25

Colts

Opp (NO) Pass DVOA: #10
Opp (NO) Run DVOA: #10
Opp (NO) Weighted DEF: #7
Injuries to Watch DEF (NO) Friday Report: LB Kiko Alonso (DNP) S Vonn Bell (DNP) CB Patrick Robinson (DNP) DE Cameron Jordan (LP) LB AJ Klein (LP)
Injuries to Watch OFF (IND) Friday Report: WR TY Hilton (LP) OL Le’Raven Clark (DNP)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): T.Y. Hilton (24%) Zach Pascal (20%) Jack Doyle (15%) Parris Campbell (15%) Nyheim Hines (12%) Deon Cain (6%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Nyheim Hines (56%, 8, 5) Marlon Mack (41%, 13, 0) Jordan Wilkins (14%, 1, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
This season has gone south fast for the Colts, dropping five of their last six games, and Jacoby Brissett (downgrade) has been much less effective in the second half of the season. He was able to take advantage of the Buccaneers ridiculously bad secondary last week in a close loss, but will face a stiffer challenge this week. The Saints give up the 10th most FPPG to QBs, but have the 10th best pass DVOA, and Brissett may be without his top WR again this week. Consider him a low-upside QB2, and don’t look his way unless desperate in a 2QB or superflex league.
TY Hilton (injury downgrade) is currently listed as a game time decision for MNF, making him a risky starting proposition due to the fact that most of the alternative options in your lineup will have already played by the time we get final clarity on his status. Unless there is a report stating definitively he will suit up, it’s best to avoid him this week. If you own Zach Pascal (start only if Hilton sits), you could also use him as a pivot option in case Hilton is ruled out before kickoff. If that’s the case, it would leave Pascal in position to soak up another high target total. He’s been extremely productive the past two weeks, and the Saints give up the 3rd most FPPG to WRs, so if he’s the #1 option this week he should be in your lineup. However, it’s hard to bank on this as Hilton likely won’t be declared active or inactive until just before kickoff, so it’s tough to bench more established studs for him during Sunday’s games. Consider Pascal a borderline WR2 if Hilton sits, but he’s no more than a boom-bust WR3/4 if Hilton plays. It’s likely best to avoid this situation entirely if you can, and either player could potentially see Marcus Lattimore in shadow coverage if the Saints decide to go that route as well. With Eric Ebron out for the year, Jack Doyle (upgrade) has shown flashes, but put up a 2-27 dud last week. Brissett likes throwing to his TEs, and Doyle is a great red-zone threat, so with the scarcity of quality options at the position Doyle is a mid-range TE1. The Saints are middle of the pack against TEs, so get him in your lineups this week unless you have a higher floor elite option.
RB Breakdown
Another tough draw is on deck for Marlon Mack (volume upgrade). He played 41% of snaps in his return from injury, receiving only 13 touches. Still, he looked healthy, and was clearly the lead back. The Colts will likely increase his workload moving forward, and he should see closer to 20 touches this week, game-script permitting. New Orleans has only ceded 14.2 FPPG to the position, but Mack’s projected volume keep him in the RB2 ranks. Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins are merely afterthoughts in this offense with the return of the Mack, and both can be safely dropped.

Saints

Opp (IND) Pass DVOA: #14
Opp (IND) Run DVOA: #20
Opp (IND) Weighted DEF: #15
Injuries to Watch DEF (IND) Friday Report: CB Kenny Moore (DNP) CB Pierre Desir (LP)
Injuries to Watch OFF (NO) Friday Report: OT Terron Armstead (LP) OL Will Clapp (LP) OG Andrus Peat (DNP)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Michael Thomas (30%) Alvin Kamara (22%) Jared Cook (15%) Ted Ginn (10%) Tre’Quan Smith (6%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 14: Alvin Kamara (76%, 17, 6) Latavius Murray (33%, 9, 3)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Lamar Jackson broke Michael Vick’s single-season rushing record for a quarterback on Thursday Night Football this week, so it would be fitting for Primetime Drew Brees (upgrade) to break the all-time passing touchdown record on Monday Night Football in the same week. Brees is sitting at 537 career touchdown passes, just two shy of Peyton Manning. However, Tom Brady is at 536, so it’s possible that going into MNF, Brees will be chasing both Manning and Brady (NFL.com) Indianapolis has been fading of late, Jameis Winston just posted 456-yards and four touchdowns against a usually solid secondary. Monday feels like it’ll be a special moment for Brees, he’s a top-5 QB option, fire him up.
Michael Thomas (upgrade) is also chasing greatness, going after Marvin Harrison’s single-season reception record of 143. Thomas is just twenty-three catches shy with three weeks left to go (NFL.com). Indy’s zone defense should provide plenty of underneath windows for the stud wideout, he’s an every-week elite WR1. The other wideouts are riskier: neither Ted Ginn or Tre’Quan Smith can be relied upon, and should be treated as boom-or-bust dart throws. Jared Cook has emerged as the No. 3 passing option since Brees returned from injury, vacuuming up a 15% target share in the last six weeks. He’s expected to suit up Monday, after a concussion knocked him out of last week's barn burner. He’s an every week TE1 - IND cedes 7.3 FPPG to the position.
RB Breakdown
It was extremely disappointing to watch the Saints roll up yards and points in the shootout last week, while Alvin Kamara (upgrade) busted on 17 touches. Latavius Murray was given fewer snaps and touches than Kamara, but was able to parlay his limited opportunity into a successful fantasy outing. Unfortunately, that’s just fantasy football sometimes; a plethora of variables exist and many cannot be predicted. Kamara owners that managed to survive the opening round of playoffs, despite his unfortunate bust week, need to renew their faith for this one. Indy cedes just 14.4 FPPG to RBs - but they are bottom-12 in Run DVOA. Additionally, we may be back to a reality in which the Saints score 30 a week in The Big Easy. I’m not betting against the positive game-script the home matchup should provide; Lat “Pulldown” Murray can be considered a viable, albeit slightly unpredictable, flex option as well.
Score Prediction: Saints 35, Colts 20